Daily Soybean Report
The Market in 20 Seconds
Three-year highs on three legs firing at once: the EPA turned the bear case into deferred demand, the strait went from economic standoff back to live fire with crude through $90, and a 12-degree temperature anomaly hitting the western belt. A record July crush drawing down oil stocks says the domestic demand floor is rising. The caution: funds were near 200,000 contracts before this leg so any pullbacks could be hard and fast. But for now the signals point higher.
Market Commentary
Beans Blow Through 1300 as the EPA Read Turns Bullish and the US Strikes Again
Futures. Another breakout session. November beans surged 29-6 to 1317-6, through 1300 for the first time, with September up 31-4 and gains of more than 2% across most of the front month contracts - the highest levels since late 2023. The whole complex ran: September meal jumped 7.4 to 342.0, September oil added 1.87 to 72.37, up 2.7%. Corn followed, December up 8-2 at 546-0.
Biofuels. The market re-read Monday's ruling and liked it. The 1.76 billion RIN exemption is the largest since 2017, but the reallocation of the full difference into 2026-27 mandates shifts the demand forward instead of erasing it - Stroud at No Bull called the net effect minimal against a market braced for the worst. Bean oil's flat close Monday and 2.7% rally Tuesday is the repricing on show.
Crush & Stocks. July crush set another record: 221.9 mbu, beating the 220.1 mbu average estimate, up 1.9% on June and 8.2% on last year. Oil stocks of 1.963 billion lbs fell 6.4% on the month despite the record month.
Hormuz/Energy. The war reignited. US forces began striking IRGC targets across southern Iran on Tuesday - Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Jask - after two supertankers were hit leaving Hormuz on Monday and the weekend's Larak exchange. Tehran's parliament speaker: "If the enemy wants us not to export oil from the Persian Gulf, no one will be able to export oil." Trump threatened to hit Iran "at a much harder and higher level" if it retaliates. Crude surged - WTI Oct settled 90.22, +4.46 (+5.20%), with Brent Nov at 95.25, +4.76 (+5.26%).
US Weather. The map keeps punishing: the 1-7 day anomaly runs 8-12C above normal over NE, IA and MO, and the 14-day precipitation outlook is brown through the entire belt.
China Demand. Another 136,000 MT to China for 2026/27, the third straight business day, running total 703,000 tons. The program didn't blink at the strikes.
South American Supply. StoneX nudged Brazil up 0.4 MMT to a record 183.5 MMT on better Rio Grande do Sul yield prospects - El Nino rain favours the south. The record southern crop remains the ceiling on this rally's timeline.
What's Ahead
Charts
Settlement Prices
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZSU26) | 1293-6 | -12-4 | -0.96% |
| Nov 26 (ZSX26) | 1309-6 | -6-4 | -0.49% |
| Jan 27 (ZSF27) | 1325-0 | -6-4 | -0.49% |
| Mar 27 (ZSH27) | 1330-2 | -6-4 | -0.49% |
| May 27 (ZSK27) | 1334-4 | -7-0 | -0.52% |
| Jul 27 (ZSN27) | 1335-2 | -7-6 | -0.58% |
| Aug 27 (ZSQ27) | 1315-4 | -8-0 | -0.6% |
| Sep 27 (ZSU27) | 1271-6 | -9-0 | -0.7% |
| Nov 27 (ZSX27) | 1256-0 | -9-6 | -0.77% |
| Jan 28 (ZSF28) | 1265-6 | -9-4 | -0.74% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZMU26) | 345.3 | +0.1 | +0.03% |
| Oct 26 (ZMV26) | 348.2 | -0.4 | -0.11% |
| Dec 26 (ZMZ26) | 355.1 | -0.4 | -0.11% |
| Jan 27 (ZMF27) | 358.0 | -0.1 | -0.03% |
| Mar 27 (ZMH27) | 359.6 | +0.2 | +0.06% |
| May 27 (ZMK27) | 360.3 | +0.1 | +0.03% |
| Jul 27 (ZMN27) | 360.6 | -0.4 | -0.11% |
| Aug 27 (ZMQ27) | 356.7 | -1.0 | -0.28% |
| Sep 27 (ZMU27) | 351.9 | -1.5 | -0.42% |
| Oct 27 (ZMV27) | 346.3 | -1.9 | -0.55% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZLU26) | 68.78 | -0.72 | -1.04% |
| Oct 26 (ZLV26) | 68.89 | -0.74 | -1.06% |
| Dec 26 (ZLZ26) | 69.27 | -0.77 | -1.1% |
| Jan 27 (ZLF27) | 69.43 | -0.79 | -1.13% |
| Mar 27 (ZLH27) | 69.55 | -0.81 | -1.15% |
| May 27 (ZLK27) | 69.60 | -0.79 | -1.12% |
| Jul 27 (ZLN27) | 69.50 | -0.75 | -1.07% |
| Aug 27 (ZLQ27) | 68.97 | -0.70 | -1.0% |
| Sep 27 (ZLU27) | 68.36 | -0.64 | -0.93% |
| Oct 27 (ZLV27) | 67.69 | -0.57 | -0.84% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZSK7-ZSN7 | -0.75 | -0.5 | -1.75 | -1.5 | 1,926 |
| ZSN7-ZSQ7 | 19.5 | 20.0 | 18.75 | 19.25 | 891 |
| ZSQ7-ZSU7 | 44.0 | 44.25 | 42.25 | 42.75 | 231 |
| ZSU7-ZSX7 | 16.0 | 16.75 | 14.25 | 15.0 | 228 |
| ZSX7-ZSF8 | -9.75 | -9.5 | -10.0 | -9.5 | 92 |
| ZMK7-ZMN7 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 2,413 |
| ZMN7-ZMQ7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 774 |
| ZLK7-ZLN7 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 644 |
| ZLN7-ZLQ7 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.5 | 0.58 | 125 |
International Markets — DCE & MDEX
| Contract | Settle (CNY/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| XTU6 — Sep 26 | 4,960 | +19 | +0.38% |
| XTX6 — Nov 26 | 4,991 | +11 | +0.22% |
| XTF7 — Jan 27 | 5,031 | +11 | +0.22% |
| XTH7 — Mar 27 | 5,063 | +9 | +0.18% |
| XTK7 — May 27 | 5,218 | +12 | +0.23% |
CNY/t | Dalian Commodity Exchange
| Contract | Settle (MYR/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOU6 — Sep 26 | 4,608 | -27 | -0.58% |
| KOV6 — Oct 26 | 4,775 | +7 | +0.15% |
| KOX6 — Nov 26 | 4,929 | +25 | +0.51% |
| KOZ6 — Dec 26 | 5,054 | +36 | +0.72% |
| KOF7 — Jan 27 | 5,155 | +48 | +0.94% |
MYR/t | Malaysia Derivatives Exchange
Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 1, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,325,813 | 273,197 | 32,014 | +241,183 | +42,929 |
| Soybean Meal (CBOT) OI 730,588 | 178,612 | 19,871 | +158,741 | +61,705 |
| Soybean Oil (CBOT) OI 723,386 | 133,775 | 23,863 | +109,912 | +21,470 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,594,329 | 493,064 | 62,002 | +431,062 | +54,549 |
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 596,572 | 107,285 | 92,631 | +14,654 | +28,825 |