2.84 million tons took the market by surprise: a million of it was business nobody announced and it lands as harvest pressure starts to run out of puff - 64% a week ago with the combines through the bulk of it by Monday's crop progress report. Oil up 1.2% on Brent at $112 gave it a leg up, but the palm glut caps vegoil into Southeast Asia and India. Wednesday's 1245-2 could form a temporary low as harvest pressure subsides and the China program continues while energy prices stay elevated.
Export Sales Print 2.84 MMT and the Market Buys It
Futures. November rose 7-6 to 1253-0, up 0.6%, led by the front end with November 2027 off 0-4, recovering Wednesday's drop to 1245-2. Oil led the complex, December up 0.77 at 66.74, a gain of 1.2% with Brent at a five-month high. Meal went the other way on the spread, December down 1.0 at 347.3 with the deferreds flat. Corn eased 2-6 to 460-4.
Export Sales. Net sales of 2.841 MMT for the week to October 15, the high end of the 1.8-3.0 MMT range, more than four times the prior week and 171% above last year. The daily system had flagged 1.877 MMT of it, so nearly a million tons was private business that never hit the wire. Meal sales of 242,168 MT fell short of the 250,000-650,000 MT range; oil was 916 MT. USDA added another 202,000 MT to China on Thursday morning.
South American Supply. ABIOVE puts Brazil's 2027 crush at 66 MMT, up 2.4 MMT, with exports at 113 MMT, down 0.9 MMT.
Vegoil. Palm oil is sitting about $100 a ton under soyoil and $300 under sunflower, with Indian buyers taking 20,000-30,000 MT a day into Diwali and Malaysia sitting on record stocks. Malaysia is considering waiving its crude palm duty and Indonesia's levy may fall in November.
Hormuz/Energy. Brent hit $112, a five-month high, after the IRGC said it set four vessels ablaze in the northern Gulf and three more struck mines west of Hormuz, Houthis hit Dammam airport and the Shaybah oilfield, and Aramco sent its Dhahran headquarters staff home to work remotely. The US has ordered diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia.
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 (ZSX26) | 1253-0 | +7-6 | +0.62% |
| Jan 27 (ZSF27) | 1264-6 | +6-4 | +0.52% |
| Mar 27 (ZSH27) | 1271-4 | +5-2 | +0.41% |
| May 27 (ZSK27) | 1278-6 | +4-2 | +0.33% |
| Jul 27 (ZSN27) | 1284-0 | +3-2 | +0.25% |
| Aug 27 (ZSQ27) | 1268-0 | +2-2 | +0.18% |
| Sep 27 (ZSU27) | 1236-6 | +1-0 | +0.08% |
| Nov 27 (ZSX27) | 1228-2 | -0-4 | -0.04% |
| Jan 28 (ZSF28) | 1239-6 | -0-6 | -0.06% |
| Mar 28 (ZSH28) | 1238-2 | -1-0 | -0.08% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (ZMZ26) | 347.3 | -1.0 | -0.29% |
| Jan 27 (ZMF27) | 345.4 | -0.5 | -0.14% |
| Mar 27 (ZMH27) | 344.3 | +0.0 | +0.0% |
| May 27 (ZMK27) | 345.7 | +0.2 | +0.06% |
| Jul 27 (ZMN27) | 348.9 | +0.2 | +0.06% |
| Aug 27 (ZMQ27) | 346.6 | +0.1 | +0.03% |
| Sep 27 (ZMU27) | 343.4 | +0.0 | +0.0% |
| Oct 27 (ZMV27) | 339.4 | -0.2 | -0.06% |
| Dec 27 (ZMZ27) | 341.7 | +0.0 | +0.0% |
| Jan 28 (ZMF28) | 342.1 | +0.1 | +0.03% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (ZLZ26) | 66.74 | +0.77 | +1.17% |
| Jan 27 (ZLF27) | 66.95 | +0.81 | +1.22% |
| Mar 27 (ZLH27) | 67.20 | +0.82 | +1.24% |
| May 27 (ZLK27) | 67.44 | +0.82 | +1.23% |
| Jul 27 (ZLN27) | 67.45 | +0.82 | +1.23% |
| Aug 27 (ZLQ27) | 66.99 | +0.82 | +1.24% |
| Sep 27 (ZLU27) | 66.48 | +0.84 | +1.28% |
| Oct 27 (ZLV27) | 65.89 | +0.81 | +1.24% |
| Dec 27 (ZLZ27) | 65.64 | +0.84 | +1.3% |
| Jan 28 (ZLF28) | 65.46 | +0.85 | +1.32% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZSK7-ZSN7 | -0.75 | -0.5 | -1.75 | -1.5 | 1,926 |
| ZSN7-ZSQ7 | 19.5 | 20.0 | 18.75 | 19.25 | 891 |
| ZSQ7-ZSU7 | 44.0 | 44.25 | 42.25 | 42.75 | 231 |
| ZSU7-ZSX7 | 16.0 | 16.75 | 14.25 | 15.0 | 228 |
| ZSX7-ZSF8 | -9.75 | -9.5 | -10.0 | -9.5 | 92 |
| ZMK7-ZMN7 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 2,413 |
| ZMN7-ZMQ7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 774 |
| ZLK7-ZLN7 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 644 |
| ZLN7-ZLQ7 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.5 | 0.58 | 125 |
| Contract | Settle (CNY/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| XTX6 — Nov 26 | 5,391 | +31 | +0.58% |
| XTF7 — Jan 27 | 5,432 | +33 | +0.61% |
| XTH7 — Mar 27 | 5,449 | +34 | +0.63% |
| XTK7 — May 27 | 5,555 | +36 | +0.65% |
| XTN7 — Jul 27 | 5,538 | +35 | +0.64% |
CNY/t | Dalian Commodity Exchange
| Contract | Settle (MYR/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOX6 — Nov 26 | 4,551 | +29 | +0.64% |
| KOZ6 — Dec 26 | 4,695 | +33 | +0.71% |
| KOF7 — Jan 27 | 4,792 | +25 | +0.52% |
| KOG7 — Feb 27 | 4,885 | +17 | +0.35% |
| KOH7 — Mar 27 | 4,967 | +10 | +0.20% |
MYR/t | Malaysia Derivatives Exchange
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of October 13, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,329,482 | 272,905 | 35,414 | +237,491 | -14,169 |
| Soybean Meal (CBOT) OI 742,046 | 212,946 | 6,815 | +206,131 | -672 |
| Soybean Oil (CBOT) OI 638,230 | 116,449 | 27,121 | +89,328 | -10,119 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,519,671 | 321,331 | 90,454 | +230,877 | -86,481 |
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 608,955 | 85,818 | 118,856 | -33,038 | -3,495 |