The peace talks didn't produce what Thursday and Friday's CBOT action was hoping for - Putin is planning six more months for Donetsk, refineries were burning within hours of the envoys leaving, and Latvia is about to tax Russia's workaround at 300%. The tender action is now one to definitely watch. Saudi Arabia cancelled 535,000 tonnes on price while Pakistan ordered TCP to buy 750,000 tonnes for November. The GFSA has storage and can wait. Pakistan, with a 3 MMT wheat shortfall cannot. That split - who can wait vs who can't - will dictate who is forced to meet that market at current levels. A supply constrained market gets squeezed even more when the big tenders start trading.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | +15 | Indonesia | — | $325 |
Matif Firms as Peace Talks End with Little to no Progress
Futures. US markets were closed for Labor Day. Matif Dec settled 249.25, +3.00 (+1.22%), recovering ground as the weekend's diplomacy produced no breakthrough, though still off last week's 256.75 contract high. CBOT reopens today with Friday's close at 734-0 the reference.
Black Sea. The envoys came and went but the war stayed. People familiar with the Kremlin talks say Putin remains committed to taking all of Donetsk and believes his army can do it within six months. Ukraine resumed long-range strikes within hours of the visit, hitting Lukoil's 260,000 bpd Perm refinery and Tatarstan's processing cluster overnight after striking Ryazan on Sunday. SovEcon has September Russian wheat exports at about 2.0 MMT against 4.6 MMT a year ago, with alternative routes unable to offset a meaningful share of lost southern capacity. One of the main alternatives is now under threat - Latvia plans a 300% tariff on Russian and Belarusian grain, with Lithuania also weighing an end to transits, just as Russian exporters were routing volumes through Baltic-state ports.
Tender News. Saudi Arabia cancelled its 535,000-tonne hard wheat tender, calling offers unsuitable on price - the tender had sought Red Sea ports only to dodge Hormuz risk. Pakistan is going the other way: Islamabad reiterated its decision to import up to 1 MMT and directed TCP to start immediately, with a first phase of 750,000 tonnes of milling wheat for November delivery. The tender advertisement is expected within days with a seven-day response window, and all shipments are to reach Karachi or Gwadar by November 20.
Hormuz/Energy. Brent briefly topped $98, up about 60% this year, as Chinese buying returns and Jazan came under fresh attack. Iran says a Hormuz deal with Oman is imminent while warning ships off the Omani coast. Goldman sees $120 Brent if shipping attacks broaden. Funds are the most bullish Brent since May.
Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 8-15) is dry for the cropping belt. The extended GEFS 2 week map also shows a warm and dry outlook which will accelerate a faster finish for the southern crops. El Niño is forecast to start peaking in late spring.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) NEW | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | Cancelled | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
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| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
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Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
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Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
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Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
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South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
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Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
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South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
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Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 716-0 | -20-0 | -2.72% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 734-0 | -20-2 | -2.68% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 749-2 | -20-6 | -2.69% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 756-6 | -21-0 | -2.7% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 753-2 | -20-4 | -2.65% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 756-4 | -20-2 | -2.61% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 764-0 | -20-2 | -2.58% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 786-6 | -11-6 | -1.47% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 802-2 | -13-2 | -1.62% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 815-2 | -13-0 | -1.57% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 819-6 | -13-2 | -1.59% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 811-2 | -12-6 | -1.55% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 810-6 | -13-0 | -1.58% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 815-4 | -13-6 | -1.66% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 720.0 | -19.75 | -2.67% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 745.0 | -20.5 | -2.68% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 762.75 | -20.25 | -2.59% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 773.0 | -19.75 | -2.49% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 774.75 | -19.5 | -2.46% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 761.5 | -21.5 | -2.75% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 763.75 | -22.0 | -2.8% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 241.00 | +0.50 | +0.21% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 249.25 | +3.00 | +1.22% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 247.50 | +3.00 | +1.23% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 247.50 | +3.25 | +1.33% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 235.75 | +2.50 | +1.07% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 239.25 | +2.50 | +1.06% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 352.00 | unch | unch |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 359.00 | unch | unch |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 363.00 | unch | unch |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 369.50 | unch | unch |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 1, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 596,572 | 107,285 | 92,631 | +14,654 | +28,825 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 344,551 | 82,585 | 32,301 | +50,284 | +6,222 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 78,853 | 23,757 | 2,884 | +20,873 | +7,188 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,325,813 | 273,197 | 32,014 | +241,183 | +42,929 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,594,329 | 493,064 | 62,002 | +431,062 | +54,549 |
