The switching is underway. Sudan taking French wheat for the first time in 18 years is telling - when a typically Russian wheat stronghold books French wheat as an alternative, the trade is no longer waiting for the truce. Asian mills sitting on 2.0-2.5 MMT of booked Black Sea cargo that may not arrive is the next domino.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $265 | +17 | Indonesia | $45 | $310 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $288 | +3 | Indonesia | $32 | $320 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $269 | +9 | Indonesia | $49 | $318 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Firms as Importers Start Shopping Elsewhere
Futures. Wheat closed mostly higher on Thursday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 682-6, +2-4 (+0.37%), with Dec 700-0, +2-4 (+0.36%). KC HRW was fractionally mixed, Sep 762-2, +0-2 (+0.03%). MIAX Spring Wheat led, Sep 700-6, +6-6 (+0.97%). Matif Dec settled 241.00, +4.25 (+1.80%), a four-week high.
Black Sea. Asian mills have 2.0-2.5 MMT of Black Sea wheat booked for July-September arrival, 30-50% of their import demand, and traders told Reuters several shipments may not arrive on time. A ship is set to load 67,000 tonnes of French wheat for Sudan, the first such cargo in 18 years and likely a switch out of Russian origin. Jordan cancelled four tenders on thin offers. SovEcon has Russian Black Sea and Azov export capacity cut from 3.3 MMT a month to about 250,000 tonnes through Tuapse alone. "It's worse for the wheat market than Hormuz was for crude," Sizov told the FT, adding he expects July's three-year high to be surpassed. Ukraine has shipped only about 500,000 tonnes since August 1, a fifth of its potential.
Export Sales. Weekly US sales came in at 393,655 MT for the week ending August 13, the third highest of the marketing year but still 24% below the same week last year. Mexico led at 105,000 MT, with Taiwan taking 97,200 MT. IGC trimmed 2026/27 world production 4 MMT to 817 MMT and stocks 4 MMT to 275 MMT.
Hormuz/Energy. Crude heads for a near 6% weekly gain, with WTI above $86 and Brent closing near $94 after five straight sessions higher. Trump is calling Monday's planned Iran sanctions package an "economic D-day," with measures that could ensnare China. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are further tightening global diesel.
Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Aug 21-28) holds another 15-50mm for the southern cropping belt, with the north again missing out.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 682-6 | +2-4 | +0.37% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 700-0 | +2-4 | +0.36% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 717-2 | +2-4 | +0.35% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 724-6 | +2-2 | +0.31% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 723-0 | +1-4 | +0.21% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 729-0 | +1-0 | +0.14% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 740-0 | +0-2 | +0.03% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 762-2 | +0-2 | +0.03% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 776-4 | -0-2 | -0.03% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 790-0 | +0-0 | +0.0% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 794-4 | +0-2 | +0.03% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 789-2 | -0-4 | -0.06% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 791-6 | -1-0 | -0.13% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 799-2 | -1-0 | -0.12% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 700.75 | +6.75 | +0.97% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 727.75 | +7.5 | +1.04% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 745.75 | +7.5 | +1.02% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 757.25 | +8.25 | +1.1% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 763.25 | +8.5 | +1.13% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 755.0 | +9.0 | +1.21% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 757.5 | +7.5 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 227.25 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 241.00 | +4.25 | +1.80% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 241.50 | +3.00 | +1.26% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 243.00 | +2.25 | +0.93% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 233.75 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 238.50 | -0.25 | -0.10% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 343.70 | -2.30 | -0.66% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 360.50 | +0.50 | +0.14% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 363.50 | unch | unch |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 370.00 | unch | unch |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 11, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 581,798 | 76,151 | 107,552 | -31,401 | -7,616 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 345,187 | 64,530 | 36,868 | +27,662 | -5,432 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 83,612 | 17,591 | 7,712 | +9,879 | +1,013 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,203,233 | 164,515 | 63,153 | +101,362 | -24,104 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,268,704 | 333,335 | 166,565 | +166,770 | -15,176 |