SMAC Markets

Daily Wheat Report

CBOT SRW Dec
675-6
-17-0 (-2.45%)
KC HRW Dec
733-0
-10-0 (-1.35%)
MIAX Spring Dec
693.25
-6.0 (-0.86%)
Matif Dec
236.00
-0.25 (-0.11%)
ASX Jan
353.50
+1.5 (+0.43%)

The Market in 20 Seconds

Key Driver
Corn liquidation drags wheat through tighter stocks
Watch
US Weekly Export Sales and Friday COT
Sam's Take

The drop came from corn liquidation, not wheat fundamentals. The Black Sea picture hasn't changed: SovEcon has Russia's ports not normal until 2027 and Ukraine's wheat carryover is heading to 11.7 MMT from 1.6 MMT - the grain is there, it just can't get out. That's also why a truce headline would hit so hard and why buyers are rationing their purchases.

Physical Wheat Prices

as of Tuesday 15 September
OriginGrade FOB ($/mt) DestFreightCFRCFR W/W
Romania/Bulgaria11.5% $280 Indonesia$65$345+20
AustraliaAPW1 (VIC/SA) $308 Indonesia$32$340+8
USASWW (PNW) $271 Indonesia$45$316-23
Argentina11.5% $258 Indonesia—$325—

Market Commentary

Wheat Ignores Tighter Stocks as Corn Drags Chicago to a Six-Week Low

Futures

Futures. Wheat fell across the three exchanges on Wednesday, with Chicago touching 673-2, its lowest since August 14, as a bearish corn stocks number spilled over. CBOT SRW Dec settled 675-6, -17-0 (-2.45%). KC HRW Dec 733-0, -10-0 (-1.35%). MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 693-2, -6-0 (-0.86%). Matif Dec 236.00, -0.25 (-0.11%). Corn Dec fell 21-2 (-4.07%) to 500-6. AUD/USD 0.6945 with the DXY at 101.45.

US Stocks

US Stocks. USDA put September 1 wheat stocks at 1.846 billion bushels, down 288 mbu or 14% on the year and below the 1.872 billion the trade expected. The Small Grains Summary lifted production 3 mbu to 1.534 billion bushels, slightly above estimates, at a 48.1 bpa yield - HRW 466 mbu, SRW 294 mbu, white winter 259 mbu and spring wheat 449.5 mbu.

Black Sea

Black Sea. SovEcon cut Russia's 2026/27 wheat exports 4.7 MMT to 36.7 MMT and sees normal Azov-Black Sea port operations resuming no earlier than 2027. Ukraine's grain stocks were 24.6 MMT on September 1, up 10 MMT on the year, and APK-Inform sees wheat carryover reaching a record 11.7 MMT against 1.6 MMT. September grain exports are down more than 60%, farmgate milling wheat is off nearly 30% in two months, and Kyiv is weighing giving oilseeds priority on the constrained routes. Russia launched its heaviest strike on Ukraine's power grid in months overnight.

Hormuz/Energy

Hormuz/Energy. Iran says it has received the US response to its seven-day proposal - the sides agree on the steps but not the order. WTI rose 1.2% to $90. US distillate stocks are at their lowest seasonal level on record.

Australia

Australia. Three days of rain for the eastern belt - BOM has Vic picking up 15-25mm Thursday, 15-25mm Friday with a 25-50mm pocket in north-central Vic, and another 10-15mm Saturday. SA gets 10-25mm today.

Tender Tracker

DateBuyerStatusQty PriceShipment Result / Origin
Sep 29 ▶South Korean Milling Group NEW Open100kt Offers pendingTBC — · U.S. milling wheat (SW / HRW / DNS expected)

South Korean flour mills have issued a tender to buy 100,000 MT of US milling wheat, traders said on September 29. Grade split, shipment window and closing date to be confirmed.

Compare the last two: September 10 the group bought 100,000 MT (50kt US from CJ International at $273.78 SW / $335.98 HRW / $335.52 DNS FOB for Jan 1-31, plus 50kt Canadian CWRS in the low $330s); August 6 it bought 36,800 MT US at $261.35 SW / $319.25 HRW / $320.36 DNS FOB.

With KC Dec 23c under its September 10 level, an HRW print near $325-330 FOB would confirm the hard-wheat premium is coming off in the Pacific as well as in the CFR markets.

Sep 28 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Result pending185kt (+/-10%) $339.36 CFR Karachi (lowest) / $340.36 CFR GwadarArrival by Nov 20 (TBC) Bunge lowest of 12 responsive · Olam $341.88, Ameropa $343.47, Agrocorp $343.74, CHS $345.00 · Optional origin

TCP opened 13 bids on September 28 for 185,000 MT +/-10% of milling wheat; 12 were technically and financially responsive. Lowest evaluated bidder: Bunge SA at $339.36/MT CFR Karachi and $340.36 CFR Gwadar - the only bidder to quote Gwadar.

Other responsive offers, CFR Karachi: Olam $341.88, Ameropa $343.47, Agrocorp $343.74, CHS $345.00, Mera $346.19, Louis Dreyfus $346.50, Falconbridge $347.49, Al Ghurair $349.00 (admitted to the bidding this round), Saif $350.53, Soufflet $354.82, Aston $354.83. Mercury ME non-responsive (short of export experience).

Grievances by 1800 hours September 29; TCP may reject before award. If awarded, TCP would likely again ask the other bidders to match the lowest.

Context: $339.36 is $9.47 under the $348.83 paid on September 19. CBOT Dec fell 23½c between the two closings (726¾ to 703¼), roughly $8.60/MT - the drop in the offer is almost exactly the board move, so the CFR Karachi premium over Chicago has held through a week of truce headlines. Spread of offers $15.47 between lowest and highest, versus Bunge to Olam $2.52 at the top - a tight, competitive book.

Sep 22 ▶Jordan (MIT) Awarded60kt $332 CFR AqabaFH November Buildcom (Bulgaria) · Optional origin milling wheat

Jordan's MIT bought 60,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat from Bulgarian trader Buildcom at $332/MT CFR Aqaba, shipment first half of November 2026.

Four companies, two envelopes. Other offers: CHS $335.88, Olam $339.00, Cargill $342.93/MT CFR.

Context: Jordan cancelled on September 1 with offers at $340-350 CIF; $332 is $8-18 under those and $13 over the $318.95 CHS sale of August 18. Bulgarian origin at $332 CFR Aqaba sits between Algeria's $319-321 (Sep 15) and TCP's $348.83 CFR Karachi (Sep 19) once freight is allowed for - the Black Sea/Danube premium is holding at the physical level while Chicago has fallen 18c since the TCP award.

Sep 19 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Awarded365kt of 750kt sought $348.83 CFR (all lots matched to lowest)Arrival by Nov 20 LDC, Bunge, Agrocorp, Aston (50kt each); Falconbridge, CHS, Ameropa (55kt each) · Optional origin ex Israel/India

TCP bought 365,000 MT of the 750,000 MT sought, all at $348.83/MT c&f after asking bidders to match the lowest offer (Agrocorp's). Seven lots: 50,000 MT each from Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston; 55,000 MT each from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. Olam's $369.95 not taken.

A new tender is expected within days for the remaining 385,000 MT. Shipment in 50,000 MT consignments to arrive Karachi/Gwadar by November 20 at the latest.

Optional origin excluding Israel and India; offers cited Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, the US, Latvia and Germany. Pakistan is believed to have a substantial requirement after a disappointing domestic harvest.

Context: $348.83 is ~$29 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f four days earlier - the nearby premium with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. Half the program booked; the other half comes back to a market that has since fallen ~15c in Chicago.

Sep 15 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) $319-321 CFRNov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat

OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible.

Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f.

Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds.

Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop.

Sep 10 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded100kt $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can)Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS

South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB.

US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB.

Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027.

Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates.

Sep 7 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) Cancelled535kt — (offers rejected on price)— — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only

GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price.

The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk.

Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20).

Sep 1 ▶Jordan Cancelledup to 120kt $340–350 CIF (offers)Oct-Nov — · Milling wheat

Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill.

Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18.

Next milling wheat tender expected September 15.

Aug 27 ▶Tunisia Awarded125kt $308.05 CIF— Bunge · Milling wheat

Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27.

In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF.

Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice.

Aug 20 ▶Japan MAFF Awarded— $320 FOB— Australia · ASW

Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20.

Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year.

In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ.

Aug 19 ▶Philippines SMC Awarded1 cargo $295 CFRSep (Oct 5 eta) U.S. · SWW

Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival.

US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September.

SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival.

Aug 18 ▶Jordan Awarded~60kt $318.95 c&fOct 1-15 CHS · Milling wheat

Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT.

CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F.

Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment.

Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment.

Aug 14 ▶Taiwan Awarded~97.2kt $261-320 FOBOct 24-Nov 28 U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW

Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments.

First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT.

Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT.

Trader estimates, subject to revision.

Aug 12 ▶Philippines Awarded~150kt $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFROct-Dec Australia · Feed wheat

Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines.

Shipments spread across October, November and December.

Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines.

Aug 7 ▶South Korea MFG Awarded~134kt ~$271.49 c&f~Dec 10–20 S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn

South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7.

Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading.

Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20.

Aug 7 ▶Tunisia Cancelled50kt $278.50 c&f (lowest)— — · Feed corn

Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7.

Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F.

A new tender is expected to be issued next week.

Aug 6 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded36.8kt $261–320 FOBDec 20–Jan 20 U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS

South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6.

Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB.

Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation.

This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week.

Aug 6 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~720kt $289–290 c&fSep-Oct Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat

Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday.

Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers.

Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports.

Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f.

Aug 4 ▶Jordan Cancelled— Not revealedSep-Oct — · Milling wheat

Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston.

Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed.

New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026.

What's Ahead

Week of Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2026
Mon 28
USDA Export Inspections
US Crop Progress
Tue 29
—
Wed 30
USDA Small Grains Summary
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
Thu 1
US Weekly Export Sales
Fri 2
CFTC COT Positioning

Charts

CBOT SRW Wheat — Dec 2026 (ZWZ6)
Volume
Stoch RSI (14, 20)
From a technical standpoint, if the December CBOT chart gets close to 700 it starts getting back into buy territory.
KC HRW — Dec 2026 (KEZ6)
KC — Chicago Spread (KE vs ZW)
New Crop AUD Basis — ASX Jan vs CBOT Dec (A$/t)

Settlement Prices

ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (ZWZ26)675-6-17-0-2.45%
Mar 27 (ZWH27)690-6-16-2-2.3%
May 27 (ZWK27)698-6-14-6-2.07%
Jul 27 (ZWN27)701-0-11-4-1.61%
Sep 27 (ZWU27)706-4-10-2-1.43%
Dec 27 (ZWZ27)717-0-9-0-1.24%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (KEZ26)733-0-10-0-1.35%
Mar 27 (KEH27)746-4-9-2-1.22%
May 27 (KEK27)752-0-9-0-1.18%
Jul 27 (KEN27)748-4-8-0-1.06%
Sep 27 (KEU27)753-0-7-0-0.92%
Dec 27 (KEZ27)762-4-6-4-0.85%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (MWEZ26)693.25-6.0-0.86%
Mar 27 (MWEH27)713.5-6.5-0.9%
May 27 (MWEK27)725.25-7.0-0.96%
Jul 27 (MWEN27)731.0-6.75-0.91%
Sep 27 (MWEU27)726.0-6.0-0.82%
Dec 27 (MWEZ27)730.0-4.5-0.61%
SpreadOpenHighLowCloseVolume

International Markets — Matif & ASX

Matif Milling Wheat (Paris)
ContractSettle (€/t)Change% Change
MLZ26 — Dec 26236.00-0.25-0.11%
MLH27 — Mar 27239.00-1.00-0.42%
MLK27 — May 27239.25-1.25-0.52%
MLU27 — Sep 27231.50-1.25-0.54%
MLZ27 — Dec 27235.50-0.50-0.21%

€/t  |  Euronext Paris

ASX Wheat (Sydney)
ContractSettle (AUD/t)Change% Change
X9F27 — Jan 27353.50+1.50+0.43%
X9H27 — Mar 27358.00+2.00+0.56%
X9K27 — May 27363.00+2.00+0.55%

AUD/t  |  ASX  |  Front months not yet trading

Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions

CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 22, 2026

Contract Long Short Net Position Chg (wk)
Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 595,400 85,982 99,126 -13,144 -8,438
Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 346,013 77,023 35,280 +41,743 -4,015
Wheat (MIAX) OI 81,944 24,562 3,165 +21,397 -823
Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,428,898 297,830 32,789 +265,041 +20,331
Corn (CBOT) OI 2,675,976 477,679 63,242 +414,437 -12,405