Putin telling the world there'll be no shortage while his own ag ministry drafts bailouts for growers who can't ship is a big contradiction. You wouldn't normally subsidise storage and buy your own crop if exports are about to normalise. Shorts covered in Chicago and length added in KC shows some positioning for a grain shortage, although the w/w action was meek. Bessent's Iran package lands today and the rhetoric around it points to an inflammatory response from Iran. It all leans towards higher volatility to the upside this week.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $265 | +17 | Indonesia | $45 | $310 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $288 | +3 | Indonesia | $32 | $320 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $269 | +9 | Indonesia | $49 | $318 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Ends the Week on Profit-Taking
Futures. Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges on Friday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 681-4, -1-2 (-0.18%), still up 6-6 on the week, with Dec 699-2, -0-6 (-0.11%). KC HRW Sep 756-2, -6-0 (-0.79%), holding a two-cent weekly gain. MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 698-2, -2-4 (-0.36%) after a 20-cent rally on the week. Matif Dec eased 2.75 to 238.25 (-1.14%) following Thursday's four-week high.
Managed Money. CFTC data as of August 18 showed managed money cutting 4,916 contracts from the CBOT SRW net short, taking it to 26,485 contracts. In KC, they added 7,173 contracts to the net long, now 34,835 contracts.
Black Sea. Putin says Kyiv opened "Pandora's box" and to expect strikes on Ukraine's most sensitive economic sectors, while claiming Russia can replace Ukrainian exports and there will be no global shortage. The same week, Moscow began planning crop procurement, preferential loans and sales subsidies for growers who can't ship, and is studying alternative export routes.
Hormuz/Energy. Brent eased 1% to 93.45 this morning ahead of Bessent detailing the Iran "economic D-day" package later today, with measures that could ensnare China. Saudi logistics are straining - at least six empty supertankers have sailed around Africa to dodge the Houthi blockade and Asian refiners are refusing Yanbu loadings.
Australia. BOM's Monday forecast holds 10-25mm for SA and the Vic Mallee, with lighter falls elsewhere across the southern belt. The Tuesday forecast shows widespread 15-25mm for the NSW cropping belt which is especially needed in the central to northern areas.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF NEW | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC NEW | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 681-4 | -1-2 | -0.18% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 699-2 | -0-6 | -0.11% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 716-4 | -0-6 | -0.1% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 724-4 | -0-2 | -0.03% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 722-2 | -0-6 | -0.1% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 728-2 | -0-6 | -0.1% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 739-4 | -0-4 | -0.07% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 756-2 | -6-0 | -0.79% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 772-4 | -4-0 | -0.52% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 785-6 | -4-2 | -0.54% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 790-4 | -4-0 | -0.5% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 786-0 | -3-2 | -0.41% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 789-0 | -2-6 | -0.35% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 797-2 | -2-0 | -0.25% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 698.25 | -2.5 | -0.36% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 724.5 | -3.25 | -0.45% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 742.75 | -3.0 | -0.4% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 754.5 | -2.75 | -0.36% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 759.25 | -4.0 | -0.52% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 746.5 | -8.5 | -1.13% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 751.0 | -6.5 | -0.86% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 223.50 | -3.75 | -1.65% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 238.25 | -2.75 | -1.14% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 239.50 | -2.00 | -0.83% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 241.25 | -1.75 | -0.72% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 233.00 | -0.75 | -0.32% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 238.00 | -0.50 | -0.21% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 346.30 | +2.60 | +0.76% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 360.00 | -0.50 | -0.14% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 363.50 | -0.50 | -0.14% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 370.00 | -0.50 | -0.13% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 18, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 573,777 | 76,844 | 103,329 | -26,485 | +4,916 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 339,878 | 68,422 | 33,587 | +34,835 | +7,173 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,500 | 18,563 | 6,900 | +11,663 | +1,784 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,219,563 | 193,837 | 42,175 | +151,662 | +50,301 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,395,505 | 376,030 | 125,525 | +250,505 | +83,735 |