The market's first genuine new supply story in weeks capped the board all session - wheat gave up early double-digit gains to finish nearly flat even with Moscow rejecting a grain-ship ceasefire. The conflict in the Black Sea doesn't show signs of resolving any time soon so India reopening wheat exports could be a release valve for import-dependent millers in the region.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | +15 | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $292 | +4 | Indonesia | $32 | $324 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $270 | +1 | Indonesia | $49 | $319 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Fades From Early Highs as India Reopens Exports
Futures. Wheat hit a monthly high early in the session then pared back to a mixed close on Monday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 681-6, +0-2 (+0.04%), with Dec 699-4, +0-2 (+0.04%). KC HRW Sep 750-4, -5-6 (-0.76%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 693-6, -4-4 (-0.64%). Matif Dec firmed 0.75 to 239.00 (+0.31%).
Black Sea. Zelenskiy says Russia is "not ready" for a grain-ship ceasefire - Moscow wants any deal to also cover Ukrainian strikes on refineries and pipelines, which Kyiv calls not comparable. "There is no total blockade today, but there is an attempt at one. Three or four ships a day are entering and leaving Greater Odesa," he said. The Kremlin says it is acting to minimise the impact of strikes on its grain exports.
India Exports. India scrapped its wheat export ban with immediate effect, including durum and flour, after a record 120.6 MMT harvest left stockpiles at all-time highs. Indian wheat is rarely price-competitive, but the reopening adds a supplier for Asian, African and Middle Eastern buyers just as Black Sea flows stall.
US Crop. Spring wheat harvest reached 62% by Sunday, 10 points ahead of normal, with the final rating of the season down one point at 51% g/e. Weekly inspections of 425,668 MT were down 59% on the same week last year, with the Philippines the top destination. Marketing-year shipments lag last year by 26%.
Hormuz/Energy. Bessent's "economic D-day" underwhelmed - 60 entities sanctioned but no Chinese banks and no penalties yet, with a "cure period" before secondary sanctions bite. Brent closed 2.4% lower at 92.17.
Australia. PIRSA lifted its SA crop forecast 779,000 tonnes to 9.79 MMT, 11% above the five-year average and potentially the state's third biggest, with wheat at 5.25 MMT and lentils at a record 938,000 tonnes. Good rain fell across Vic and southern NSW overnight, with 15-25mm forecast across the NSW belt today.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF NEW | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC NEW | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 681-6 | +0-2 | +0.04% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 699-4 | +0-2 | +0.04% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 717-4 | +1-0 | +0.14% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 725-6 | +1-2 | +0.17% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 723-4 | +1-2 | +0.17% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 729-2 | +1-0 | +0.14% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 740-2 | +0-6 | +0.1% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 750-4 | -5-6 | -0.76% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 767-2 | -5-2 | -0.68% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 780-6 | -5-0 | -0.64% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 786-4 | -4-0 | -0.51% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 783-0 | -3-0 | -0.38% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 786-0 | -3-0 | -0.38% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 794-0 | -3-2 | -0.41% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 693.75 | -4.5 | -0.64% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 721.25 | -3.25 | -0.45% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 739.0 | -3.75 | -0.5% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 750.75 | -3.75 | -0.5% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 756.5 | -2.75 | -0.36% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 749.5 | +3.0 | +0.4% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 753.75 | +2.75 | +0.37% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 227.50 | +4.00 | +1.79% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 239.00 | +0.75 | +0.31% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 240.25 | +0.75 | +0.31% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 242.00 | +0.75 | +0.31% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 233.25 | +0.25 | +0.11% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 238.00 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 348.80 | +2.50 | +0.72% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 363.00 | +3.00 | +0.83% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 366.50 | +3.00 | +0.83% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 373.00 | +3.00 | +0.81% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 18, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 573,777 | 76,844 | 103,329 | -26,485 | +4,916 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 339,878 | 68,422 | 33,587 | +34,835 | +7,173 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,500 | 18,563 | 6,900 | +11,663 | +1,784 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,219,563 | 193,837 | 42,175 | +151,662 | +50,301 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,395,505 | 376,030 | 125,525 | +250,505 | +83,735 |