Funds went from long to flat to short in three weeks and the board followed them down with three consecutive weekly declines. The Dec CBOT futures contract has now given back 59-6c for the month of September on truce headlines that haven't moved a cargo, and the physical keeps writing the other story - Pakistan paid $349 for 365,000 tonnes and is coming back for the rest, Egypt is buying French wheat with six months of cover, and insurers just declared the whole Black Sea a war zone. The new number that matters this week is Russian planting 20-30% behind last year's pace. Ten of eleven farmers cutting area by up to 40% is next year's supply shrinking while this year's can't ship. That's the bearish-later story turning into a bullish-later story.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | Dest | Freight | CFR | CFR W/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | Indonesia | $65 | $345 | +20 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $308 | Indonesia | $32 | $340 | +8 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $271 | Indonesia | $45 | $316 | -23 |
| Argentina | 11.5% | $258 | Indonesia | — | $325 | — |
Wheat Falls as Funds Flip Short and Pakistan Takes Half a Tender
Futures. Wheat sold off into the weekend across the three exchanges. CBOT SRW Dec settled 714-2, -12-6 (-1.75%), down 11 cents on the week. KC HRW Dec 783-6, -10-6 (-1.35%), down 14-6 on the week. MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 741-2, -11-2 (-1.50%). Matif Dec fell 2.00 to 241.50 (-0.82%). AUD/USD 0.7124 with the DXY at 100.23.
Managed Money. Funds flipped back to a net short in CBOT wheat as of September 15, a swing of 8,968 contracts to 4,706 net short, and trimmed 5,490 from the KC net long to 45,758.
Tender News. Pakistan reportedly took 365,000 tonnes of its 750,000-tonne tender, all at $348.83 CFR after TCP asked bidders to match the lowest offer - 50,000-tonne lots from Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston, and 55,000-tonne lots from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. A retender for the remaining 385,000 tonnes is expected within days. Egypt says it is diversifying to France, Romania and Bulgaria with reserves covering more than six months and will buy more once prices ease.
Black Sea. Bloomberg surveyed 11 small and mid-sized Russian growers - ten plan to cut winter wheat plantings by 15-40%, with the Grain Union putting sowing 20-30% behind last year and Russian FOB at a $150 discount to US HRW, the widest since 2022. Ukraine launched one of its largest drone waves on Moscow overnight Saturday, hitting the Kapotnya refinery that supplies 40-50% of the capital's fuel. London's Joint War Committee widened its high-risk zone to the entire Black Sea, with war-risk premiums now adding hundreds of thousands per seven-day voyage.
Hormuz/Energy. The Houthis struck Riyadh's main airport on Saturday, and with their forces now sitting on the Bab el-Mandeb the Gulf's energy exports are almost entirely cut off from both ends. Trump says Iran can "make a deal, rot economically or be wiped out" but is open to meeting Pezeshkian at the UN this week. Tehran says any new attack triggers sustained retaliation and that US regional allies would be treated as parties to the conflict.
Australia. GIWA lifted WA's crop 2 MMT to 23.06 MMT on late-August rain, with frost risk now past and heat the limiting factor into a sharp finish. Protein is expected to run low in nitrogen-limited zones and good in the drier north. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 21-28) has 15-50mm for WA's south coast but 1-5mm across the eastern belt, where the GEFS fortnight stays at 20-60% of normal.
| Date | Buyer | Status | Qty | Price | Shipment | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | ▶Pakistan (TCP) NEW | Awarded | 365kt of 750kt sought | $348.83 CFR (all lots matched to lowest) | Arrival by Nov 20 | LDC, Bunge, Agrocorp, Aston (50kt each); Falconbridge, CHS, Ameropa (55kt each) · Optional origin ex Israel/India |
|
TCP bought 365,000 MT of the 750,000 MT sought, all at $348.83/MT c&f after asking bidders to match the lowest offer (Agrocorp's). Seven lots: 50,000 MT each from Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston; 55,000 MT each from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. Olam's $369.95 not taken. A new tender is expected within days for the remaining 385,000 MT. Shipment in 50,000 MT consignments to arrive Karachi/Gwadar by November 20 at the latest. Optional origin excluding Israel and India; offers cited Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, the US, Latvia and Germany. Pakistan is believed to have a substantial requirement after a disappointing domestic harvest. Context: $348.83 is ~$29 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f four days earlier - the nearby premium with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. Half the program booked; the other half comes back to a market that has since fallen ~15c in Chicago. |
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| Sep 15 | ▶Algeria OAIC | Awarded | ~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) | $319-321 CFR | Nov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 | Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat |
|
OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible. Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f. Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds. Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. |
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| Sep 10 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | Awarded | 100kt | $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can) | Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) | U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS |
|
South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB. US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB. Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027. Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates. |
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| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) | Cancelled | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
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| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | Cancelled | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | Awarded | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | Awarded | — | $320 FOB | — | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | Awarded | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | Awarded | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | Awarded | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | Awarded | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | Awarded | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | Cancelled | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | Awarded | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | Awarded | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | Cancelled | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 714-2 | -12-6 | -1.75% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 730-0 | -13-0 | -1.75% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 738-0 | -12-0 | -1.6% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 738-0 | -9-4 | -1.27% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 742-6 | -8-2 | -1.1% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 752-2 | -7-2 | -0.95% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 783-6 | -10-6 | -1.35% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 797-2 | -9-6 | -1.21% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 802-0 | -8-6 | -1.08% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 795-0 | -6-4 | -0.81% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 796-4 | -5-6 | -0.72% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 803-4 | -4-6 | -0.59% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 741.25 | -11.25 | -1.5% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 761.75 | -9.75 | -1.26% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 773.5 | -8.75 | -1.12% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 775.75 | -6.0 | -0.77% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 761.25 | -4.5 | -0.59% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 762.0 | -4.25 | -0.55% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 241.50 | -2.00 | -0.82% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 244.75 | -1.25 | -0.51% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 245.50 | -1.25 | -0.51% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 235.50 | -1.25 | -0.53% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 239.25 | -1.25 | -0.52% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 356.00 | -1.50 | -0.42% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 360.50 | -0.50 | -0.14% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 367.00 | -0.50 | -0.14% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 15, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 603,066 | 93,497 | 98,203 | -4,706 | -8,968 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 347,391 | 78,979 | 33,221 | +45,758 | -5,490 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,409 | 24,896 | 2,676 | +22,220 | -105 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,416,904 | 282,326 | 37,616 | +244,710 | -21,321 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,662,009 | 484,852 | 58,010 | +426,842 | +1,671 |
