SMAC Markets

Daily Wheat Report

CBOT SRW Dec
726-6
+12-4 (+1.75%)
KC HRW Dec
794-4
+10-6 (+1.37%)
MIAX Spring Dec
746.25
+5.0 (+0.67%)
Matif Dec
243.75
+2.25 (+0.93%)
ASX Jan
363.00
+7.0 (+1.97%)

The Market in 20 Seconds

Key Driver
Weekend Black Sea strikes bury truce talk
Watch
Trump-Xi summit and Pakistan 185kt tender
Sam's Take

Grain futures rallied on the weekend's Black Sea strikes despite crude markets softening. Moscow's own refinery burning is as clear as daylight that Trump's energy truce doesn't exist. Rail application numbers versus physical deliveries temper expectations on rerouting. Baltic terminals, Arctic ports, Far East corridors - none of it gets anywhere near replacing Black Sea export capacity. Pakistan tendering again 24 hours after buying looks like a buyer trying to buy in incrementally without spooking the market.

Physical Wheat Prices

as of Tuesday 15 September
OriginGrade FOB ($/mt) DestFreightCFRCFR W/W
Romania/Bulgaria11.5% $280 Indonesia$65$345+20
AustraliaAPW1 (VIC/SA) $308 Indonesia$32$340+8
USASWW (PNW) $271 Indonesia$45$316-23
Argentina11.5% $258 Indonesia—$325—

Market Commentary

Wheat Rebounds as Weekend Strikes Bury Truce Talk

Futures

Futures. Wheat opened the week higher across the three exchanges. CBOT SRW Dec settled 726-6, +12-4 (+1.75%). KC HRW Dec 794-4, +10-6 (+1.37%). MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 746-2, +5-0 (+0.67%). Matif Dec rose 2.25 to 243.75 (+0.93%). Corn jumped nearly 3% on US-China optimism ahead of Xi's state visit, with wheat drawing spillover. AUD/USD 0.7120 with the DXY at 100.43.

Black Sea

Black Sea. The weekend's drone waves dampened the de-escalation optimism - Ukraine's largest strike on Moscow yet halted the Gazprom Neft refinery, 230,000 bpd and weeks to repair, while Russia killed four in the Kyiv region. Russia is repurposing export facilities in an effort to create supply chain alternatives: a fertiliser terminal is now taking grain, St Petersburg container terminals are loading, and the Arctic starts wheat exports in October. SovEcon's caution: August rail applications to Latvian ports ran to several million tonnes, actual exports were 250,000 MT, and they have Russian grain exports at 2.45 MMT, half of last year.

US Crop

US Crop. Winter wheat planting reached 17%, four points behind average, with 2% emerged and rain forecast across the Plains this week. Spring wheat harvest is 96% done. Weekly inspections of 335,253 MT were down 29% on the week and roughly a third below last year, with Mexico, Vietnam and the Philippines the top takers.

Tender News

Tender News. Pakistan came straight back with a 185,000-tonne tender after taking 365,000 tonnes at $348.83 over the weekend.

Hormuz/Energy

Hormuz/Energy. Crude fell to a 12-day low on hopes for UN-week diplomacy and a partial Saudi recovery - Brent settled 100.34, -3.53 (-3.40%), with WTI near $95. Trump says he may meet Pezeshkian in New York. Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban beyond September with European diesel now trading $84 a barrel over crude against $28 before the war.

Australia

Australia. A hot week ahead for the southern crop - GEFS has SA, Vic and southern NSW running 4-8°C above average through September 29 with BOM's eight-day outlook holding 1-5mm across the eastern belt. WA's south coast gets 15-50mm.

Tender Tracker

DateBuyerStatusQty PriceShipment Result / Origin
Sep 22 ▶Pakistan (TCP) NEW Open185kt (min 60kt lots, +/-10%) Offers pendingCFR Karachi / Gwadar - dates TBC — · Milling wheat, optional origin (ex Israel/India), CFR Karachi or Gwadar

TCP has issued a follow-up tender for 185,000 MT of wheat, CFR Karachi or Gwadar, in minimum lots of 60,000 MT +/-10%, three days after buying 365,000 MT at $348.83 c&f.

This is the second tranche of the 750,000 MT program; 185kt plus the 365kt already bought leaves roughly 200kt still to be covered. Closing date, delivery window and origin restrictions to be confirmed - traders had expected the balance of 385kt in one go.

Watch the lowest offer against $348.83: a print at or above it with the board 12c higher says the nearby premium is holding; a print under $340 says the first round was paid up for.

Sep 19 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Awarded365kt of 750kt sought $348.83 CFR (all lots matched to lowest)Arrival by Nov 20 LDC, Bunge, Agrocorp, Aston (50kt each); Falconbridge, CHS, Ameropa (55kt each) · Optional origin ex Israel/India

TCP bought 365,000 MT of the 750,000 MT sought, all at $348.83/MT c&f after asking bidders to match the lowest offer (Agrocorp's). Seven lots: 50,000 MT each from Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston; 55,000 MT each from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. Olam's $369.95 not taken.

A new tender is expected within days for the remaining 385,000 MT. Shipment in 50,000 MT consignments to arrive Karachi/Gwadar by November 20 at the latest.

Optional origin excluding Israel and India; offers cited Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, the US, Latvia and Germany. Pakistan is believed to have a substantial requirement after a disappointing domestic harvest.

Context: $348.83 is ~$29 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f four days earlier - the nearby premium with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. Half the program booked; the other half comes back to a market that has since fallen ~15c in Chicago.

Sep 15 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) $319-321 CFRNov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat

OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible.

Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f.

Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds.

Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop.

Sep 10 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded100kt $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can)Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS

South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB.

US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB.

Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027.

Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates.

Sep 7 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) Cancelled535kt — (offers rejected on price)— — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only

GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price.

The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk.

Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20).

Sep 1 ▶Jordan Cancelledup to 120kt $340–350 CIF (offers)Oct-Nov — · Milling wheat

Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill.

Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18.

Next milling wheat tender expected September 15.

Aug 27 ▶Tunisia Awarded125kt $308.05 CIF— Bunge · Milling wheat

Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27.

In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF.

Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice.

Aug 20 ▶Japan MAFF Awarded— $320 FOB— Australia · ASW

Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20.

Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year.

In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ.

Aug 19 ▶Philippines SMC Awarded1 cargo $295 CFRSep (Oct 5 eta) U.S. · SWW

Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival.

US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September.

SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival.

Aug 18 ▶Jordan Awarded~60kt $318.95 c&fOct 1-15 CHS · Milling wheat

Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT.

CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F.

Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment.

Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment.

Aug 14 ▶Taiwan Awarded~97.2kt $261-320 FOBOct 24-Nov 28 U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW

Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments.

First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT.

Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT.

Trader estimates, subject to revision.

Aug 12 ▶Philippines Awarded~150kt $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFROct-Dec Australia · Feed wheat

Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines.

Shipments spread across October, November and December.

Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines.

Aug 7 ▶South Korea MFG Awarded~134kt ~$271.49 c&f~Dec 10–20 S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn

South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7.

Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading.

Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20.

Aug 7 ▶Tunisia Cancelled50kt $278.50 c&f (lowest)— — · Feed corn

Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7.

Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F.

A new tender is expected to be issued next week.

Aug 6 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded36.8kt $261–320 FOBDec 20–Jan 20 U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS

South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6.

Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB.

Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation.

This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week.

Aug 6 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~720kt $289–290 c&fSep-Oct Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat

Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday.

Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers.

Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports.

Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f.

Aug 4 ▶Jordan Cancelled— Not revealedSep-Oct — · Milling wheat

Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston.

Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed.

New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026.

What's Ahead

Week of Sep 21 – 25, 2026
Mon 21
USDA Export Inspections
US Crop Progress
Tue 22
UNGA General Debate opens (NY, to Thu 24)
Wed 23
Trump-Xi Summit (Day 1)
Thu 24
Trump-Xi Summit (Day 2)
US Weekly Export Sales
Fri 25
Trump-Xi Summit (Day 3)
CFTC COT Positioning

Charts

CBOT SRW Wheat — Dec 2026 (ZWZ6)
Volume
Stoch RSI (14, 20)
From a technical standpoint, if the December CBOT chart gets close to 700 it starts getting back into buy territory.
KC HRW — Dec 2026 (KEZ6)
KC — Chicago Spread (KE vs ZW)
New Crop AUD Basis — ASX Jan vs CBOT Dec (A$/t)

Settlement Prices

ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (ZWZ26)726-6+12-4+1.75%
Mar 27 (ZWH27)742-6+12-6+1.75%
May 27 (ZWK27)750-4+12-4+1.69%
Jul 27 (ZWN27)747-6+9-6+1.32%
Sep 27 (ZWU27)751-2+8-4+1.14%
Dec 27 (ZWZ27)760-0+7-6+1.03%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (KEZ26)794-4+10-6+1.37%
Mar 27 (KEH27)807-6+10-4+1.32%
May 27 (KEK27)812-0+10-0+1.25%
Jul 27 (KEN27)803-6+8-6+1.1%
Sep 27 (KEU27)805-2+8-6+1.1%
Dec 27 (KEZ27)812-0+8-4+1.06%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (MWEZ26)746.25+5.0+0.67%
Mar 27 (MWEH27)767.5+5.75+0.75%
May 27 (MWEK27)779.0+5.5+0.71%
Jul 27 (MWEN27)780.25+4.5+0.58%
Sep 27 (MWEU27)766.5+5.25+0.69%
Dec 27 (MWEZ27)767.5+5.5+0.72%
SpreadOpenHighLowCloseVolume

International Markets — Matif & ASX

Matif Milling Wheat (Paris)
ContractSettle (€/t)Change% Change
MLZ26 — Dec 26243.75+2.25+0.93%
MLH27 — Mar 27247.00+2.25+0.92%
MLK27 — May 27247.50+2.00+0.81%
MLU27 — Sep 27237.75+2.25+0.96%
MLZ27 — Dec 27241.25+2.00+0.84%

€/t  |  Euronext Paris

ASX Wheat (Sydney)
ContractSettle (AUD/t)Change% Change
X9F27 — Jan 27363.00+7.00+1.97%
X9H27 — Mar 27366.50+6.00+1.66%
X9K27 — May 27373.00+6.00+1.63%

AUD/t  |  ASX  |  Front months not yet trading

Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions

CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 15, 2026

Contract Long Short Net Position Chg (wk)
Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 603,066 93,497 98,203 -4,706 -8,968
Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 347,391 78,979 33,221 +45,758 -5,490
Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,409 24,896 2,676 +22,220 -105
Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,416,904 282,326 37,616 +244,710 -21,321
Corn (CBOT) OI 2,662,009 484,852 58,010 +426,842 +1,671