SMAC Markets

Daily Wheat Report

CBOT SRW Dec
692-2
+9-2 (+1.35%)
KC HRW Dec
742-2
+7-0 (+0.95%)
MIAX Spring Dec
708.5
+10.5 (+1.5%)
Matif Dec
245.75
+4.25 (+1.76%)
ASX Jan
355.50
+0.5 (+0.14%)

The Market in 20 Seconds

Key Driver
Saudi takes 683kt as Russia hits a Turkish corn vessel
Watch
Black Sea escalation and Friday WASDE
Sam's Take

Saudi bought the dip as GFSA took 28% more than it asked for after walking away from the tender a month ago. Russia then answered Turkey's truce proposal with two drones on a Turkish ship. Both sides have promised escalation, so more headlines like Monday's are likely, and with Chicago 21,670 net short the path of least resistance could be higher. The supply side has not improved but the demand side sees value at these levels.

Physical Wheat Prices

as of Tuesday 6 October
OriginGrade FOB ($/mt) DestFreightCFRCFR W/W
AustraliaAPW1 (VIC/SA) $295 Indonesia$32$327-13
USASWW (PNW) $260 Indonesia$45$305-11
Argentina11.5% $238 Indonesia$67$305-20

Market Commentary

Wheat Rallies as Saudi Arabia Takes 683,000 Tonnes and Russia Hits Turkish Corn Vessel

Futures

Futures. Wheat opened the week higher across the three exchanges. CBOT SRW Dec settled 692-2, +9-2 (+1.35%). KC HRW Dec 742-2, +7-0 (+0.95%). MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 708-4, +10-4 (+1.50%). Matif Dec led, 245.75, +4.25 (+1.76%). The DXY pushed on to 102.17 with AUD/USD at 0.697.

Tender News

Tender News. Saudi Arabia bought 683,000 tonnes at an average $339.24 CFR, 148,000 tonnes more than the 535,000 it tendered for and all into Red Sea ports. Bunge took the biggest share at 260,000 tonnes into Yanbu, with Olam, Cargill, Aston, CHS and Soufflet filling the rest. Prices ran from $334.66 for Bunge's first Yanbu cargo to $348 for Soufflet into Jizan, with shipment November 20 to December 31.

Black Sea

Black Sea. Two Russian drones hit a Turkish-owned vessel carrying corn in neutral waters, killing the captain, with Azerbaijani and Indian crew aboard and 11 rescued. Zelenskiy says Russia "consistently chooses terror and sinking civilian vessels" over the de-escalation proposals on the table. Ukraine's September grain exports fell 36.6% on the year and Kyiv puts $40 billion of export revenue at risk from the blockade, as it freezes non-essential spending to close a $56 billion funding gap.

US Crop

US Crop. Winter wheat planting reached 36% against a 46% average and the 43% the trade expected, with 16% emerged. The GEFS has the Plains at 20-40% of normal rainfall through October 20, which should let planting catch up.

Hormuz/Energy

Hormuz/Energy. WTI steadied near $89 after a two-day 3.7% drop and Brent closed near $100 as Gulf exports keep climbing - Kuwait is pumping at 75% of pre-war, Iraq is chartering more tankers for Hormuz, and Aramco cut Arab Light to Asia to a six-year low.

Australia

Australia. After up to 100mm in some areas last week, BOM's eight-day outlook (Oct 6-13) keeps it coming with 15-25mm across the SA cropping belt, Vic and southern NSW, while the WA wheatbelt dries out.

Tender Tracker

DateBuyerStatusQty PriceShipment Result / Origin
Oct 5 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) NEW Awarded683kt (11 cargoes) $334.66-348.00 CFR · avg $339.24Nov 20 - Dec 31 Bunge 5 cargoes, Olam 3, Cargill, Aston, CHS, Soufflet · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports

GFSA bought 683,000 MT of hard wheat - well above the ~535kt sought - at an average of $339.24/MT CFR, for arrival November 20 to December 31 (trader report, October 5).

Jeddah: Cargill 60kt $342.79 (Nov 20-30), Aston 60kt $342.98 (Dec 1-15), Olam 65kt $338.50 (Dec 15-31). Yanbu: Bunge 65kt $334.66 (Nov 20-30), Bunge 65kt $337.66 (Dec 1-15), Bunge 65kt $336.56 (Dec 15-31), CHS 60kt $338.80 (Dec 15-31), Bunge 65kt $339.56 (Dec 15-31). Neom: Olam 63kt $336.50 (Nov 20-30), Olam 60kt $337.25 (Dec 15-31). Jizan: Soufflet 55kt $348.00 (Dec 15-31).

Context: four weeks ago GFSA cancelled 535kt on price with CBOT Dec near 735; it has now taken 683kt with Dec at 692 - about $16/MT lower on the board. The $339 average sits alongside TCP $341.57 (Oct 2) and Jordan $332 (Sep 22): the hard-wheat CFR market in the Middle East has a floor in the high $330s that has barely moved while Chicago fell 60c. Buying 28% more than sought says Riyadh wanted the cover at these levels.

Oct 2 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Awarded180kt ~$341.57 CFR (avg)Arrival by Nov 20 Bunge, Olam, Ameropa · Optional origin milling wheat

TCP bought about 180,000 MT of milling wheat at an average of around $341.57/MT CFR Karachi/Gwadar from Bunge, Olam and Ameropa - the three lowest evaluated bidders from the September 28 opening (Bunge $339.36 Karachi / $340.36 Gwadar, Olam $341.88, Ameropa $343.47). Trader report via GRAIN on X, October 2.

The average sits between the three offers, so TCP appears to have taken each at its own price rather than matching everything to the lowest as it did on September 19.

Context: $341.57 is $7.26 under the $348.83 paid three weeks earlier on 365kt. CBOT Dec fell from 726¾ to 675¾-683 between the two awards (roughly $16-19/MT), so the CFR premium over Chicago has widened - Pakistan is paying up relative to the board. Programme total now ~545kt of the 750kt directed; roughly 200kt still to come.

Sep 29 ▶South Korean Milling Group Open100kt Offers pendingTBC — · U.S. milling wheat (SW / HRW / DNS expected)

South Korean flour mills have issued a tender to buy 100,000 MT of US milling wheat, traders said on September 29. Grade split, shipment window and closing date to be confirmed.

Compare the last two: September 10 the group bought 100,000 MT (50kt US from CJ International at $273.78 SW / $335.98 HRW / $335.52 DNS FOB for Jan 1-31, plus 50kt Canadian CWRS in the low $330s); August 6 it bought 36,800 MT US at $261.35 SW / $319.25 HRW / $320.36 DNS FOB.

With KC Dec 23c under its September 10 level, an HRW print near $325-330 FOB would confirm the hard-wheat premium is coming off in the Pacific as well as in the CFR markets.

Sep 22 ▶Jordan (MIT) Awarded60kt $332 CFR AqabaFH November Buildcom (Bulgaria) · Optional origin milling wheat

Jordan's MIT bought 60,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat from Bulgarian trader Buildcom at $332/MT CFR Aqaba, shipment first half of November 2026.

Four companies, two envelopes. Other offers: CHS $335.88, Olam $339.00, Cargill $342.93/MT CFR.

Context: Jordan cancelled on September 1 with offers at $340-350 CIF; $332 is $8-18 under those and $13 over the $318.95 CHS sale of August 18. Bulgarian origin at $332 CFR Aqaba sits between Algeria's $319-321 (Sep 15) and TCP's $348.83 CFR Karachi (Sep 19) once freight is allowed for - the Black Sea/Danube premium is holding at the physical level while Chicago has fallen 18c since the TCP award.

Sep 19 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Awarded365kt of 750kt sought $348.83 CFR (all lots matched to lowest)Arrival by Nov 20 LDC, Bunge, Agrocorp, Aston (50kt each); Falconbridge, CHS, Ameropa (55kt each) · Optional origin ex Israel/India

TCP bought 365,000 MT of the 750,000 MT sought, all at $348.83/MT c&f after asking bidders to match the lowest offer (Agrocorp's). Seven lots: 50,000 MT each from Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston; 55,000 MT each from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. Olam's $369.95 not taken.

A new tender is expected within days for the remaining 385,000 MT. Shipment in 50,000 MT consignments to arrive Karachi/Gwadar by November 20 at the latest.

Optional origin excluding Israel and India; offers cited Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, the US, Latvia and Germany. Pakistan is believed to have a substantial requirement after a disappointing domestic harvest.

Context: $348.83 is ~$29 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f four days earlier - the nearby premium with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. Half the program booked; the other half comes back to a market that has since fallen ~15c in Chicago.

Sep 15 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) $319-321 CFRNov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat

OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible.

Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f.

Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds.

Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop.

Sep 10 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded100kt $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can)Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS

South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB.

US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB.

Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027.

Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates.

Sep 7 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) Cancelled535kt — (offers rejected on price)— — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only

GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price.

The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk.

Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20).

Sep 1 ▶Jordan Cancelledup to 120kt $340–350 CIF (offers)Oct-Nov — · Milling wheat

Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill.

Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18.

Next milling wheat tender expected September 15.

Aug 27 ▶Tunisia Awarded125kt $308.05 CIF— Bunge · Milling wheat

Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27.

In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF.

Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice.

Aug 20 ▶Japan MAFF Awarded— $320 FOB— Australia · ASW

Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20.

Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year.

In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ.

Aug 19 ▶Philippines SMC Awarded1 cargo $295 CFRSep (Oct 5 eta) U.S. · SWW

Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival.

US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September.

SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival.

Aug 18 ▶Jordan Awarded~60kt $318.95 c&fOct 1-15 CHS · Milling wheat

Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT.

CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F.

Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment.

Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment.

Aug 14 ▶Taiwan Awarded~97.2kt $261-320 FOBOct 24-Nov 28 U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW

Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments.

First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT.

Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT.

Trader estimates, subject to revision.

Aug 12 ▶Philippines Awarded~150kt $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFROct-Dec Australia · Feed wheat

Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines.

Shipments spread across October, November and December.

Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines.

Aug 7 ▶South Korea MFG Awarded~134kt ~$271.49 c&f~Dec 10–20 S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn

South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7.

Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading.

Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20.

Aug 7 ▶Tunisia Cancelled50kt $278.50 c&f (lowest)— — · Feed corn

Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7.

Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F.

A new tender is expected to be issued next week.

Aug 6 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded36.8kt $261–320 FOBDec 20–Jan 20 U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS

South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6.

Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB.

Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation.

This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week.

Aug 6 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~720kt $289–290 c&fSep-Oct Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat

Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday.

Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers.

Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports.

Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f.

Aug 4 ▶Jordan Cancelled— Not revealedSep-Oct — · Milling wheat

Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston.

Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed.

New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026.

What's Ahead

Week of Oct 5 – 9, 2026
Mon 5
USDA Export Inspections
US Crop Progress
GFSA buys 683kt at $339 avg
Tue 6
—
Wed 7
—
Thu 8
US Weekly Export Sales
Fri 9
USDA WASDE
USDA Crop Production
CFTC COT Positioning

Charts

CBOT SRW Wheat — Dec 2026 (ZWZ6)
Volume
Stoch RSI (14, 20)
From a technical standpoint, if the December CBOT chart gets close to 700 it starts getting back into buy territory.
KC HRW — Dec 2026 (KEZ6)
KC — Chicago Spread (KE vs ZW)
New Crop AUD Basis — ASX Jan vs CBOT Dec (A$/t)

Settlement Prices

ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (ZWZ26)692-2+9-2+1.35%
Mar 27 (ZWH27)706-2+9-4+1.36%
May 27 (ZWK27)712-2+8-6+1.24%
Jul 27 (ZWN27)712-6+8-0+1.14%
Sep 27 (ZWU27)717-4+7-0+0.99%
Dec 27 (ZWZ27)727-6+6-4+0.9%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (KEZ26)742-2+7-0+0.95%
Mar 27 (KEH27)755-0+7-0+0.94%
May 27 (KEK27)759-2+6-4+0.86%
Jul 27 (KEN27)756-0+6-2+0.83%
Sep 27 (KEU27)760-4+6-0+0.8%
Dec 27 (KEZ27)769-4+5-4+0.72%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (MWEZ26)708.5+10.5+1.5%
Mar 27 (MWEH27)725.25+8.0+1.12%
May 27 (MWEK27)736.5+7.5+1.03%
Jul 27 (MWEN27)742.5+8.0+1.09%
Sep 27 (MWEU27)735.25+8.25+1.13%
Dec 27 (MWEZ27)740.0+9.25+1.27%
SpreadOpenHighLowCloseVolume

International Markets — Matif & ASX

Matif Milling Wheat (Paris)
ContractSettle (€/t)Change% Change
MLZ26 — Dec 26245.75+4.25+1.76%
MLH27 — Mar 27247.50+4.00+1.64%
MLK27 — May 27247.50+3.75+1.54%
MLU27 — Sep 27236.00+2.25+0.96%
MLZ27 — Dec 27239.75+2.25+0.95%

€/t  |  Euronext Paris

ASX Wheat (Sydney)
ContractSettle (AUD/t)Change% Change
X9F27 — Jan 27355.50+0.50+0.14%
X9H27 — Mar 27358.50+0.50+0.14%
X9K27 — May 27364.50+0.50+0.14%

AUD/t  |  ASX  |  Front months not yet trading

Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions

CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 29, 2026

Contract Long Short Net Position Chg (wk)
Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 573,356 81,698 103,368 -21,670 -8,525
Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 334,886 70,774 40,064 +30,710 -11,032
Wheat (MIAX) OI 82,073 21,075 4,869 +16,206 -5,191
Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,343,560 276,133 34,969 +241,164 -23,877
Corn (CBOT) OI 2,577,179 438,908 61,058 +377,850 -36,587