Talk of diplomacy in both wars is tempering wheat and energy markets - a CIA plane in Moscow and an Iran-Oman corridor framework - and crude extended its slide while wheat closed marginally higher. That split is the story. Oil is pricing de-escalation because barrels are already leaking through Hormuz on risk tolerant supertankers. Wheat can't price a Black Sea fix because the grain still isn't moving - Russia struck five vessels the same day Kyiv drafted a peace proposal. Russia pausing its export duty is telling. You don't scrap a tax on exports you expect to flow. Every support measure Moscow stacks up - duty relief, state purchases, subsidised loans - is likely an admission the shutdown is longer than the headlines suggest.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | +15 | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $292 | +4 | Indonesia | $32 | $324 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $270 | +1 | Indonesia | $49 | $319 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Grinds Higher While Diplomatic Headlines Dominate
Futures. Wheat shook off early losses to close mostly higher on Tuesday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 685-4, +3-6 (+0.55%), with Dec 703-2, +3-6 (+0.54%). KC HRW Sep 754-4, +4-0 (+0.53%). MIAX Spring Wheat was mixed, Sep 694-0, +0-2 (+0.04%) with Dec 720-0, -1-2 (-0.17%). Matif Dec eased 2.25 to 236.75 (-0.94%) as Paris traded the diplomacy story.
Black Sea. A US military aircraft landed in Moscow on Tuesday, with US media reporting the CIA chief aboard, and Zelenskiy says a one-page proposal drafted with the US and Europeans - ceasefire, a Donbas free economic zone, EU/NATO roles - is ready for Moscow. He sees a mediation window running to summer 2027. The attacks haven't stopped: Russia's Defence Ministry says its forces struck five vessels at Ukraine's Black Sea ports on Tuesday. Meanwhile Moscow is weighing suspending its floating grain export duty through year-end, with Rusagrotrans putting August wheat exports at 1.8 MMT, down 60% and the lowest for the month since 2010.
Europe. The switching is showing up in Poland - traders report 100,000-150,000 tonnes of Polish wheat bought in the past fortnight for North Africa, with Romania and Bulgaria drawing demand too. Importers are still resisting western EU prices.
Tender News. Pakistan's TCP is expected to issue a wheat import tender within days. The country plans 1 MMT of imports against an estimated 3.5 MMT shortfall.
Hormuz/Energy. WTI is near $81 after a 6% three-session slide, with Brent below $89, as Iran and Oman discussed an "interim framework" for a temporary joint maritime corridor through Hormuz, including mine clearance. Pakistan is carrying messages between Washington and Tehran, and the US is sending personnel back to Middle East embassies. China rejected Bessent's sanctions push outright, warning of "all necessary measures."
Australia. Heavy overnight falls across Vic and SA, with 10-25mm through the central Vic cropping districts and 50mm+ pockets. The four-day outlook (Aug 26-29) turns drier for the southern belt, with the best totals shifting to WA.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 685-4 | +3-6 | +0.55% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 703-2 | +3-6 | +0.54% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 721-2 | +3-6 | +0.52% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 729-6 | +4-0 | +0.55% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 729-2 | +5-6 | +0.79% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 735-6 | +6-4 | +0.89% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 747-2 | +7-0 | +0.95% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 754-4 | +4-0 | +0.53% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 770-6 | +3-4 | +0.46% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 784-6 | +4-0 | +0.51% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 791-0 | +4-4 | +0.57% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 788-6 | +5-6 | +0.73% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 792-4 | +6-4 | +0.83% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 801-0 | +7-0 | +0.88% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 694.0 | +0.25 | +0.04% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 720.0 | -1.25 | -0.17% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 738.25 | -0.75 | -0.1% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 749.5 | -1.25 | -0.17% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 756.0 | -0.5 | -0.07% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 749.75 | +0.25 | +0.03% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 754.0 | +0.25 | +0.03% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 227.50 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 236.75 | -2.25 | -0.94% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 238.75 | -1.50 | -0.62% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 241.00 | -1.00 | -0.41% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 234.00 | +0.75 | +0.32% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 239.25 | +1.25 | +0.53% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 347.50 | -1.30 | -0.37% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 361.00 | -2.00 | -0.55% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 364.50 | -2.00 | -0.55% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 371.00 | -2.00 | -0.54% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 18, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 573,777 | 76,844 | 103,329 | -26,485 | +4,916 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 339,878 | 68,422 | 33,587 | +34,835 | +7,173 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,500 | 18,563 | 6,900 | +11,663 | +1,784 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,219,563 | 193,837 | 42,175 | +151,662 | +50,301 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,395,505 | 376,030 | 125,525 | +250,505 | +83,735 |
