Lavrov's comments are a bit of a sledgehammer to the weekend's diplomacy efforts: "Completely unrealistic" is a clear signal that grain export revenue remains weaponised and ports and shipping in the Black Sea will effectively remain shut. The Saudi number at $100 a tonne more than July for the same wheat is jarring but with November delivery still uncovered, how long can they wait out a Black Sea shutdown? Friday's WASDE lands into a market where nobody wants to be too short or too long.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | +15 | Indonesia | — | $325 |
Wheat Rallies Back as Lavrov Calls a Shipping Truce "Unrealistic"
Futures. Wheat came out of the long weekend bid. CBOT SRW Sep settled 730-2, +14-2 (+1.99%), with Dec 747-0, +13-0 (+1.77%) after trading up 4% intraday. KC HRW Sep 804-6, +18-0 (+2.29%), with Dec 819-0, +16-6 (+2.09%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 729-0, +9-0 (+1.25%). Matif Dec bucked the rest, easing 2.00 to 247.25 (-0.80%) on news of a Trump-Putin call.
Black Sea. The diplomacy scorecard after the envoys: Zelenskiy says they brought "decent ideas" and wants grain shipments on the trilateral agenda, while Lavrov called Ukraine's proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping "completely unrealistic". Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the visit, killing five and hitting rail targets, Chornomorsk and an Odesa market. Ukraine wrapped its harvest at 24.91 MMT. There are unconfirmed reports of loadings resuming at Novorossiysk, with three vessels taking grain on Tuesday.
Tender News. The Saudi cancellation is being read as possible demand destruction - offers were said to be mostly well over $370 C&F, about $100 above what the GFSA paid in early July. South Korean mills tendered for 100,000 tonnes of US and Canadian wheat, and Pakistan's TCP wheat tender is expected any day.
US Crop. Spring wheat harvest reached 86% by Sunday, three points ahead of normal, while winter wheat planting is 2% complete, three points behind the average. Weekly inspections of 342,733 MT were down 20% on the same week last year, with Mexico, Indonesia and Vietnam the top takers.
Hormuz/Energy. The war broadened on three fronts in one day. Houthis struck four Saudi cities with drones and missiles, wounding 73 and setting Aramco sites ablaze at Jazan, Abha and Najran. US forces destroyed five IRGC crude carriers, four in the Gulf of Oman and one off Kharg Island, and Iran responded with ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan and a threat to target tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. WTI is above $94 with Brent near $98 and closing in on $100 for the first time since July.
Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 9-16) stays dry for the eastern cropping belt, with 10-25mm for southern Vic and the best falls over WA-SA pastoral country. The warm, dry finish remains on track for the early southern crop.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) NEW | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | Cancelled | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
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| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 730-2 | +14-2 | +1.99% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 747-0 | +13-0 | +1.77% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 761-4 | +12-2 | +1.63% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 768-6 | +12-0 | +1.59% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 763-6 | +10-4 | +1.39% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 765-6 | +9-2 | +1.22% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 772-0 | +8-0 | +1.05% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 804-6 | +18-0 | +2.29% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 819-0 | +16-6 | +2.09% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 831-2 | +16-0 | +1.96% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 834-4 | +14-6 | +1.8% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 821-6 | +10-4 | +1.29% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 818-6 | +8-0 | +0.99% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 821-6 | +6-2 | +0.77% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 729.0 | +9.0 | +1.25% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 754.0 | +9.0 | +1.21% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 772.0 | +9.25 | +1.21% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 781.75 | +8.75 | +1.13% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 783.25 | +8.5 | +1.1% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 770.75 | +9.25 | +1.21% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 774.75 | +11.0 | +1.44% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 240.75 | -0.25 | -0.10% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 247.25 | -2.00 | -0.80% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 246.25 | -1.25 | -0.51% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 246.50 | -1.00 | -0.40% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 235.25 | -0.50 | -0.21% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 239.00 | -0.25 | -0.10% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 352.00 | unch | unch |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 362.00 | +3.00 | +0.84% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 366.50 | +3.50 | +0.96% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 373.00 | +3.50 | +0.95% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 1, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 596,572 | 107,285 | 92,631 | +14,654 | +28,825 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 344,551 | 82,585 | 32,301 | +50,284 | +6,222 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 78,853 | 23,757 | 2,884 | +20,873 | +7,188 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,325,813 | 273,197 | 32,014 | +241,183 | +42,929 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,594,329 | 493,064 | 62,002 | +431,062 | +54,549 |
