August nears the end with wheat up more than 30% from its June low, the biggest monthly gain since the invasion, and the physical market is reluctantly repricing. Egypt is on its third French cargo, and the Baltics and CVB are selling as alternative origins. The supply side is now starting to look shaky for next season's production - Rostov declaring an emergency over grain it can't ship, Ukraine unable to fund planting, Russian farmers asking to sow less. A blockade that cuts this year's exports and next year's area at the same time could mean any truce headline won't have the same impact. With the funds now near flat in Chicago and the Plains cooking into HRW planting, the market has room to run.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | +15 | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $292 | +4 | Indonesia | $32 | $324 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $270 | +1 | Indonesia | $49 | $319 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Caps Its Biggest Monthly Gain Since the Invasion
Futures. Wheat closed the week at fresh three-year highs. CBOT SRW Sep settled 767-0, +24-2 (+3.26%), up 85-4 on the week, with Dec 784-0, +23-2 (+3.06%) after trading 790-2 intraday, the highest since February 2023. KC HRW Sep 827-6, +24-2 (+3.02%), a 71-4 weekly gain. MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 745-2, +12-4 (+1.71%), up 47 cents on the week. Matif Dec settled 251.00, +3.50 (+1.41%) after a life-of-contract high at 252. AUD/USD 0.7161.
Managed Money. CFTC data as of August 25 showed managed money cutting 12,314 contracts from the CBOT SRW net short, taking it to 14,171 contracts. In KC, they added 9,227 to the net long, now 44,062 contracts. The data predates Wednesday's limit-up move - nearby Chicago has rallied 82 cents since Tuesday's close, so the remaining SRW short is likely mostly gone.
Black Sea. Russia's Rostov region declared a state of emergency on Friday as port closures left grain piling up on farms. A merchant vessel off the Romanian coast caught fire and sank late Thursday, reportedly after being struck. Ukraine's 2027 planting campaign is at risk as farmers lack the cash to sow, with the agriculture minister saying winter wheat area "will definitely" fall from 4.7 million hectares. Russian farmers are pushing to cut sowing too, which Moscow calls a food security breach.
Europe. A third vessel is due in France next week to load wheat for Egypt, and traders report purchases in the hundreds of thousands of tonnes from the Baltic States, mainly Lithuania, with Romania and Bulgaria also drawing demand.
US Weather. GEFS has a heat dome over the central Plains this week, with anomalies of +8°C to +12°C across Kansas and Nebraska, and the 14-day precipitation outlook at 20-60% of normal across the HRW belt heading into planting.
Hormuz/Energy. The calm broke on Sunday. US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island after the IRGC was observed preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the strait, the first American strikes since late July. Tehran vowed a "response and punishment." Brent is back around $90, up 2% this morning, with WTI near $85. Hormuz flows had recovered to 6-8 million barrels a day before the strike.
Australia. A wet week across the southern belt, with 25-50mm through southern NSW, Vic and SA's Mid North and similar falls across WA's wheatbelt. The four-day outlook (Sep 4-7) holds another 15-25mm for the south.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 767-0 | +24-2 | +3.26% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 784-0 | +23-2 | +3.06% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 797-6 | +21-6 | +2.8% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 802-6 | +21-2 | +2.72% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 792-2 | +19-2 | +2.49% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 792-0 | +17-4 | +2.26% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 797-0 | +15-6 | +2.02% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 827-6 | +24-2 | +3.02% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 844-2 | +22-2 | +2.71% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 856-6 | +22-0 | +2.64% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 859-4 | +20-6 | +2.47% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 845-6 | +16-0 | +1.93% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 842-0 | +13-0 | +1.57% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 844-0 | +10-4 | +1.26% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 745.25 | +12.5 | +1.71% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 769.25 | +11.5 | +1.52% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 787.75 | +12.0 | +1.55% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 797.5 | +11.25 | +1.43% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 801.25 | +11.25 | +1.42% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 780.5 | +8.25 | +1.07% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 788.5 | +8.5 | +1.09% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 239.50 | +5.00 | +2.13% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 251.00 | +3.50 | +1.41% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 251.25 | +3.25 | +1.31% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 252.00 | +3.00 | +1.20% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 242.75 | +2.00 | +0.83% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 245.75 | +0.75 | +0.31% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 355.00 | -1.00 | -0.28% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 369.00 | -2.00 | -0.54% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 374.50 | -2.00 | -0.53% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 381.00 | -2.00 | -0.52% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 25, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 529,139 | 86,649 | 100,820 | -14,171 | +12,314 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 321,485 | 76,264 | 32,202 | +44,062 | +9,227 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 75,347 | 19,656 | 5,971 | +13,685 | +2,022 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,192,738 | 235,571 | 37,317 | +198,254 | +46,592 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,410,651 | 465,500 | 88,987 | +376,513 | +126,008 |
