Funds flipped long the same week the market topped - 28,825 contracts of new Chicago length walked straight into a 50-cent weekly loss. On screen markets are reacting to peace headlines while the physical is far more sticky. CFR Asia prices are still supported with not much downside apparent. A three-day pause on hitting capitals isn't a shipping corridor, and the Donbas demand hasn't changed. Kyiv talks concluded last night with hopes for trilateral talks but nothing concrete.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | +15 | Indonesia | — | $325 |
Wheat Gives Back the Premium as Peace Talks Dominate Headlines
Futures. Wheat sold off hard into the Labor Day long weekend. CBOT SRW Sep settled 716-0, -20-0 (-2.72%), with Dec 734-0, -20-2 (-2.68%), down 50 cents on the week. KC HRW Sep 786-6, -11-6 (-1.47%), with Dec 802-2, -13-2 (-1.62%), 42 cents lower on the week. MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 720-0, -19-6 (-2.67%). Matif Dec eased 2.50 to 246.25 (-1.01%). US markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.
Black Sea. Putin hosted Witkoff and Kushner for three hours in the Kremlin on Saturday - "highly useful" per Moscow, "substantive" per the White House - before the pair flew to Kyiv, their first visit as negotiators, where Witkoff said he hopes trilateral talks are announced shortly. Both sides paused strikes on each other's capitals for the visit. The gulf remains: the Donbas, which Ukraine will not concede and Russia has as part of their list of demands. A person close to the Kremlin told Reuters Putin believes they will take it by year-end. ADM's UEP terminal at Odesa was damaged by a drone strike on August 31.
Managed Money. CFTC data as of September 1 showed managed money flipping to a net long of 14,654 contracts in CBOT wheat, a 28,825-contract swing in a week. In KC, funds added 6,222 to the net long, now 50,284 contracts. The new Chicago length was immediately underwater in Thursday and Friday's washout.
Export Demand. Reuters reported that Asian importers bought at least 500,000 tonnes of Australian and Argentine wheat in the past ten days to replace delayed Black Sea cargoes, with APW at $315-330 CFR and Argentine at $310-315 against Black Sea bookings at $260-280. Some millers are using container shipments to bridge immediate needs while deferring Black Sea arrivals.
Hormuz/Energy. US forces struck three Iranian tankers, destroying one, in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on Navy warships, and Tehran says it will declare a new restricted zone extending into the Persian Gulf. Brent opened near $97 this morning, up almost 60% this year, with WTI around $92 and US retail diesel at a record.
Australia. The southern belt's dry week ahead (5-15mm for most cropping areas in the eight-day outlook) follows a wet fortnight, with the best falls now over the WA-SA border country. Harvest preparations are underway with the east coast crop three to four weeks early.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 716-0 | -20-0 | -2.72% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 734-0 | -20-2 | -2.68% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 749-2 | -20-6 | -2.69% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 756-6 | -21-0 | -2.7% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 753-2 | -20-4 | -2.65% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 756-4 | -20-2 | -2.61% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 764-0 | -20-2 | -2.58% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 786-6 | -11-6 | -1.47% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 802-2 | -13-2 | -1.62% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 815-2 | -13-0 | -1.57% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 819-6 | -13-2 | -1.59% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 811-2 | -12-6 | -1.55% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 810-6 | -13-0 | -1.58% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 815-4 | -13-6 | -1.66% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 720.0 | -19.75 | -2.67% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 745.0 | -20.5 | -2.68% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 762.75 | -20.25 | -2.59% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 773.0 | -19.75 | -2.49% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 774.75 | -19.5 | -2.46% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 761.5 | -21.5 | -2.75% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 763.75 | -22.0 | -2.8% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 240.50 | +7.50 | +3.22% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 246.25 | -2.50 | -1.01% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 244.50 | -3.75 | -1.51% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 244.25 | -4.00 | -1.61% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 233.25 | -3.00 | -1.27% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 236.75 | -3.00 | -1.25% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 352.00 | unch | unch |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 359.00 | -6.00 | -1.64% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 363.00 | -6.00 | -1.63% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 369.50 | -6.00 | -1.60% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 1, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 596,572 | 107,285 | 92,631 | +14,654 | +28,825 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 344,551 | 82,585 | 32,301 | +50,284 | +6,222 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 78,853 | 23,757 | 2,884 | +20,873 | +7,188 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,325,813 | 273,197 | 32,014 | +241,183 | +42,929 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,594,329 | 493,064 | 62,002 | +431,062 | +54,549 |
