The market sold the diplomacy, tired of the drones and missile headlines - Novorossiysk was burning while Chicago fell 19 cents. AgResource named the mood: world wheat isn't pricing the war extending beyond September. A bold assumption to carry into a tender window where Pakistan just asked for 750,000 MT and Saudi will need to retender soon. The TCP result is out on the 19th September (80 hours after submission headline). It will show exactly what origin fills a 50,000-tonne-minimum, quality-spec bulk program when the Ukraine and Russian are effectively shut out. Friday's WASDE moves the US balance sheet a few bushels but shouldn't have any big surprises.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | +15 | Indonesia | — | $325 |
Wheat Slips to a Two-Week Low With WASDE Two Sleeps Away
Futures. Wheat retreated across the board on Wednesday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 711-2, -19-0 (-2.60%), with Dec 728-6, -18-2 (-2.44%), the lowest since August 26. KC HRW Sep 791-6, -13-0 (-1.62%), with Dec 806-2, -12-6 (-1.56%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 727-0, -2-0 (-0.27%) held up best. Matif Dec eased 2.50 to 244.75 (-1.01%).
Black Sea. Ukraine struck Novorossiysk overnight - a naval base and an oil loading terminal per Zelenskiy, with unconfirmed trade talk of grain infrastructure damage and Russian authorities reporting four killed. The early pop on that news faded as the diplomacy headlines returned: the Kremlin says it hopes US-mediated talks resume soon and named Abu Dhabi its preferred venue, while Trump says Putin "is wanting to make a deal" after their Tuesday call. SovEcon cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export estimate 3.2 MMT to 41.4 MMT. UkrAgroConsult puts the July-August Black Sea gap in numbers: Ukraine and Russia shipped 4.6 MMT against 8.7 MMT a year ago, while Romania and Bulgaria lifted shipments to 4.3 MMT from 3.0 MMT, filling part of the hole for now from CVB.
Tender News. Pakistan's TCP tender was issued: 750,000 MT milling wheat, CFR Karachi/Gwadar, minimum 50,000-tonne parcels, shipment October 11-30 with all cargo landed by November 20. Offers to be submitted by September 16 with a validity of 80 hours. Specs run 76 kg/hl, 10% protein minimum and 250 FN. South Korean mills booked 50,000 MT of US wheat although no results for Canada were reported yet.
Global Supply. StatsCan pegged July 31 wheat stocks at 6.649 MMT, up 57% on last year, and Rosario lifted Argentina's crop 0.5 MMT to 21 MMT. Both land on the WASDE scales Friday, where the Bloomberg survey has US ending stocks near unchanged at 718 mbu and USDA holds production steady until the September 30 Small Grains Summary.
Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 10-17) stays dry for the eastern belt with only 15-25mm for southern Vic. The dry, warm finish continues.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 | ▶Pakistan (TCP) NEW | 750kt | Offers due Sep 16 | Oct 11-30 (landed by Nov 20) | Open | — · Milling wheat 10% min, 76 kg/hl, 250 FN |
|
TCP issued its tender for 750,000 MT of milling wheat on September 9, CFR Karachi/Gwadar, minimum 50,000 MT parcels. Shipment October 11-30, all cargo landed by November 20. Offers due September 16, valid 80 hours - result expected around September 19. Specs: 76 kg/hl test weight, 10% protein minimum, 250 falling number. First phase of a program of up to 1 MMT. |
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| Sep 9 | ▶South Korean Milling Group NEW | 100kt (50kt booked) | Not reported | — | Awarded | U.S. · Milling wheat (50kt); Canada pending |
|
South Korean flour mills tendered on September 8 for 100,000 MT of US and Canadian milling wheat. 50,000 MT of US wheat was booked on September 9; the Canadian portion was still unreported at the time of writing. Prices not disclosed. Follows the August 6 purchase of 36,800 MT of US SWW/HRW/DNS by another Korean milling group. |
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| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | Cancelled | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
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| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
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Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 711-2 | -19-0 | -2.6% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 728-6 | -18-2 | -2.44% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 744-2 | -17-2 | -2.27% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 751-6 | -17-0 | -2.21% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 746-2 | -17-4 | -2.29% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 748-2 | -17-4 | -2.29% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 754-4 | -17-4 | -2.27% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 791-6 | -13-0 | -1.62% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 806-2 | -12-6 | -1.56% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 819-0 | -12-2 | -1.47% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 822-4 | -12-0 | -1.44% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 808-4 | -13-2 | -1.61% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 805-4 | -13-2 | -1.62% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 808-4 | -13-2 | -1.61% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 727.0 | -2.0 | -0.27% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 748.0 | -6.0 | -0.8% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 766.25 | -5.75 | -0.74% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 776.5 | -5.25 | -0.67% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 777.75 | -5.5 | -0.7% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 763.25 | -7.5 | -0.97% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 765.5 | -9.25 | -1.19% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 234.25 | -6.50 | -2.70% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 244.75 | -2.50 | -1.01% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 244.50 | -1.75 | -0.71% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 245.00 | -1.50 | -0.61% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 234.50 | -0.75 | -0.32% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 238.50 | -0.50 | -0.21% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 347.90 | -4.10 | -1.16% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 359.00 | -3.00 | -0.83% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 363.50 | -3.00 | -0.82% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 370.00 | -3.00 | -0.80% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 1, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 596,572 | 107,285 | 92,631 | +14,654 | +28,825 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 344,551 | 82,585 | 32,301 | +50,284 | +6,222 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 78,853 | 23,757 | 2,884 | +20,873 | +7,188 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,325,813 | 273,197 | 32,014 | +241,183 | +42,929 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,594,329 | 493,064 | 62,002 | +431,062 | +54,549 |