SMAC Markets

Daily Wheat Report

CBOT SRW Dec
741-2
+12-4 (+1.72%)
KC HRW Dec
818-6
+12-4 (+1.55%)
MIAX Spring Dec
762.5
+14.5 (+1.94%)
Matif Dec
245.25
+0.5 (+0.2%)
ASX Jan
352.50
-6.5 (-1.81%)

The Market in 20 Seconds

Key Driver
WTI through $100 and Black Sea plants burning
Watch
WASDE Russian and Ukrainian export lines
Sam's Take

Thursday painted a bullish picture - Black Sea crush plants and terminals burning, WTI at $104 repricing every freight enquiry, and Australia shipping July volumes it normally wouldn't see until summer. WASDE lands tonight into extreme fund length. The US numbers will barely move. The Russian and Ukrainian export lines are where USDA has to make a call on the war for the first time since the escalation.

Physical Wheat Prices

as of Tuesday 1 September
OriginGrade FOB ($/mt)W/W DestFreightCFR
Romania/Bulgaria11.5% $280— Indonesia$45$325
AustraliaAPW1 (VIC/SA) $300+8 Indonesia$32$332
USASWW (PNW) $290+20 Indonesia$49$339
Argentina11% —+15 Indonesia—$325

Market Commentary

Wheat Rallies Into WASDE as WTI Clears $100

Futures

Futures. Wheat rallied across the three exchanges on Thursday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 723-2, +12-0 (+1.69%), with Dec 741-2, +12-4 (+1.72%). KC HRW Sep 804-2, +12-4 (+1.58%), with Dec 818-6, +12-4 (+1.55%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 742-6, +15-6 (+2.17%) led the board. Matif Dec steadied at 245.25, +0.50 (+0.20%) after touching a one-week low.

Black Sea

Black Sea. Russia hit Bunge's Dnipro oilseed plant - one of Ukraine's five largest, and Russia's fourth attack on sunoil facilities in eighteen months. Ukraine's overnight drone attack on Novorossiysk damaged the NZT grain terminal, an 8.5 MMT-a-year facility, though the damage is reportedly not critical. The Kremlin says it will continue destroying vessels carrying ammunition for Ukraine in the Black Sea. On the diplomacy track, Zelenskiy ruled out trilateral talks before Russia's elections but hopes for progress on grain and energy.

WASDE Preview

WASDE Preview. USDA is expected to leave US production untouched pending the September 30 Small Grains Summary, with the Bloomberg survey marginally higher at 718 mbu ending stocks. World stocks are seen down 0.3 MMT at 273 MMT, with the trade watching for cuts to Russian and Ukrainian exports. US export sales are delayed to tonight, with 250,000-500,000 MT expected.

Hormuz/Energy

Hormuz/Energy. WTI blew through $100, settling above $104 after a near-7% session, with Brent near $108, the highest in four months, as the US and Iran dig in for a protracted conflict. Saudi production hit its lowest since 1990. Brent is up almost 80% this year.

Australia

Australia. July wheat exports jumped 33% on June to 1.99 MMT, bucking the usual new-crop-season lull, with the Philippines, Indonesia and South Korea the bulk leaders. Lachstock pegs the crop at 30.7 MMT with near-record potential in SA and Vic. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 11-18) stays mostly dry across the wheat belt.

Tender Tracker

DateBuyerQty PriceShipmentStatus Result / Origin
Sep 9 ▶Pakistan (TCP) NEW750kt Offers due Sep 16Oct 11-30 (landed by Nov 20) Open — · Milling wheat 10% min, 76 kg/hl, 250 FN

TCP issued its tender for 750,000 MT of milling wheat on September 9, CFR Karachi/Gwadar, minimum 50,000 MT parcels.

Shipment October 11-30, all cargo landed by November 20. Offers due September 16, valid 80 hours - result expected around September 19.

Specs: 76 kg/hl test weight, 10% protein minimum, 250 falling number. First phase of a program of up to 1 MMT.

Sep 9 ▶South Korean Milling Group NEW100kt (50kt booked) Not reported— Awarded U.S. · Milling wheat (50kt); Canada pending

South Korean flour mills tendered on September 8 for 100,000 MT of US and Canadian milling wheat.

50,000 MT of US wheat was booked on September 9; the Canadian portion was still unreported at the time of writing. Prices not disclosed.

Follows the August 6 purchase of 36,800 MT of US SWW/HRW/DNS by another Korean milling group.

Sep 7 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA)535kt — (offers rejected on price)— Cancelled — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only

GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price.

The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk.

Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20).

Sep 1 ▶Jordanup to 120kt $340–350 CIF (offers)Oct-Nov Cancelled — · Milling wheat

Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill.

Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18.

Next milling wheat tender expected September 15.

Aug 27 ▶Tunisia125kt $308.05 CIF— Awarded Bunge · Milling wheat

Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27.

In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF.

Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice.

Aug 20 ▶Japan MAFF— $320 FOB— Awarded Australia · ASW

Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20.

Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year.

In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ.

Aug 19 ▶Philippines SMC1 cargo $295 CFRSep (Oct 5 eta) Awarded U.S. · SWW

Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival.

US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September.

SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival.

Aug 18 ▶Jordan~60kt $318.95 c&fOct 1-15 Awarded CHS · Milling wheat

Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT.

CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F.

Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment.

Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment.

Aug 14 ▶Taiwan~97.2kt $261-320 FOBOct 24-Nov 28 Awarded U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW

Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments.

First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT.

Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT.

Trader estimates, subject to revision.

Aug 12 ▶Philippines~150kt $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFROct-Dec Awarded Australia · Feed wheat

Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines.

Shipments spread across October, November and December.

Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines.

Aug 7 ▶South Korea MFG~134kt ~$271.49 c&f~Dec 10–20 Awarded S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn

South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7.

Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading.

Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20.

Aug 7 ▶Tunisia50kt $278.50 c&f (lowest)— Cancelled — · Feed corn

Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7.

Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F.

A new tender is expected to be issued next week.

Aug 6 ▶South Korean Milling Group36.8kt $261–320 FOBDec 20–Jan 20 Awarded U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS

South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6.

Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB.

Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation.

This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week.

Aug 6 ▶Algeria OAIC~720kt $289–290 c&fSep-Oct Awarded Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat

Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday.

Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers.

Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports.

Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f.

Aug 4 ▶Jordan— Not revealedSep-Oct Cancelled — · Milling wheat

Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston.

Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed.

New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026.

What's Ahead

Week of Sep 7 – 11, 2026
Mon 7
US markets closed (Labor Day)
Tue 8
USDA Export Inspections
US Crop Progress
Wed 9
—
Thu 10
US Weekly Export Sales
Fri 11
USDA WASDE (11 Sep)
CFTC COT Positioning

Charts

CBOT SRW Wheat — Dec 2026 (ZWZ6)
KC HRW — Dec 2026 (KEZ6)
KC — Chicago Spread (KE vs ZW)
New Crop AUD Basis — ASX Jan vs CBOT Dec (A$/t)

Settlement Prices

ContractSettleChange% Change
Sep 26 (ZWU26)723-2+12-0+1.69%
Dec 26 (ZWZ26)741-2+12-4+1.72%
Mar 27 (ZWH27)756-2+12-0+1.61%
May 27 (ZWK27)763-2+11-4+1.53%
Jul 27 (ZWN27)757-2+11-0+1.47%
Sep 27 (ZWU27)758-0+9-6+1.3%
Dec 27 (ZWZ27)763-0+8-4+1.13%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Sep 26 (KEU26)804-2+12-4+1.58%
Dec 26 (KEZ26)818-6+12-4+1.55%
Mar 27 (KEH27)830-6+11-6+1.43%
May 27 (KEK27)834-4+12-0+1.46%
Jul 27 (KEN27)820-6+12-2+1.52%
Sep 27 (KEU27)818-2+12-6+1.58%
Dec 27 (KEZ27)820-6+12-2+1.52%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Sep 26 (MWEU26)742.75+15.75+2.17%
Dec 26 (MWEZ26)762.5+14.5+1.94%
Mar 27 (MWEH27)781.0+14.75+1.92%
May 27 (MWEK27)790.5+14.0+1.8%
Jul 27 (MWEN27)791.75+14.0+1.8%
Sep 27 (MWEU27)775.75+12.5+1.64%
Dec 27 (MWEZ27)778.75+13.25+1.73%
SpreadOpenHighLowCloseVolume

International Markets — Matif & ASX

Matif Milling Wheat (Paris)
ContractSettle (€/t)Change% Change
MLU26 — Sep 26234.25+0.00+0.00%
MLZ26 — Dec 26245.25+0.50+0.20%
MLH27 — Mar 27245.50+1.00+0.41%
MLK27 — May 27246.00+1.00+0.41%
MLU27 — Sep 27234.75+0.25+0.11%
MLZ27 — Dec 27238.75+0.25+0.10%

€/t  |  Euronext Paris

ASX Wheat (Sydney)
ContractSettle (AUD/t)Change% Change
X9U26 — Sep 26347.00-0.90-0.26%
X9F27 — Jan 27352.50-6.50-1.81%
X9H27 — Mar 27356.50-7.00-1.93%
X9K27 — May 27363.00-7.00-1.89%

AUD/t  |  ASX  |  Front months not yet trading

Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions

CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 1, 2026

Contract Long Short Net Position Chg (wk)
Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 596,572 107,285 92,631 +14,654 +28,825
Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 344,551 82,585 32,301 +50,284 +6,222
Wheat (MIAX) OI 78,853 23,757 2,884 +20,873 +7,188
Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,325,813 273,197 32,014 +241,183 +42,929
Corn (CBOT) OI 2,594,329 493,064 62,002 +431,062 +54,549