Pakistan got its answer: $349 for the cheapest cargo but they still need to validate the level with acceptance, reject and it joins Saudi in the wait-and-see camp. Either way, the offers themselves provide a level of transparency we wouldn't otherwise see. The Fed hike cuts the other way. Rates up, dollar index through 100, crude off 3% on a pipeline fix - that's a macro that leans on grains from three directions at once. Wheat closed higher anyway.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | Dest | Freight | CFR | CFR W/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | Indonesia | $65 | $345 | +20 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $308 | Indonesia | $32 | $340 | +8 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $271 | Indonesia | $45 | $316 | -23 |
| Argentina | 11.5% | $258 | Indonesia | — | $325 | — |
Wheat Edges Higher as Pakistan Sees $349 Offers and the Fed Hikes
Futures. Wheat finished marginally higher across the board. CBOT SRW Dec settled 730-6, +2-2 (+0.31%). KC HRW Dec 799-4, +3-2 (+0.41%). MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 756-0, +7-4 (+1.00%). Matif Dec led, settling 244.50, +3.50 (+1.45%), as tenders pulled demand toward European origins. The Fed hiked 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% and flagged more to come - DXY cleared 100 and AUD/USD slipped to 0.7086.
Tender News. TCP's evaluation report is out: nine offers and the lowest CFR Karachi offer at $348.83 from Agrocorp, with Louis Dreyfus at $349.97 Karachi and $352.97 Gwadar. Bunge came in at $356.86 and the range ran to Olam at $369.95. Results expected by Monday.
Black Sea. SovEcon puts combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July-September at 8 MMT against 16.4 MMT last year. The Kremlin is pushing exporters to hold Russia's top-exporter status regardless - subsidised rail to the Baltic and Far East, a Vladivostok terminal and a task force to route grain region by region - but a Kazakh grain analyst says "there is simply no way to replace that capacity."
Global Supply. StatsCan pegged Canadian wheat at 36.12 MMT, down 10.9%, with spring wheat at 26.45 MMT - and the survey predates the rain damage. FranceAgriMer cut French exports outside the EU 0.7 MMT to 6.3 MMT on feed demand from a failed maize crop, taking ending stocks to 3 MMT, though protein came in at 11.8% against 11.3% last year.
Hormuz/Energy. Crude had its biggest drop in six weeks - WTI fell 3.2% toward $102 and Brent closed below $106 - as Saudi Arabia moves to restore half the East-West pipeline within days and full capacity in about six weeks. Washington says 11 million barrels a day are moving through Hormuz. The Houthis claim fresh strikes on Yanbu and Khamis Mushait.
Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 17-24) is dry across the eastern belt with 1-5mm for most of the cropping zone. The early southern crop keeps racing to the line.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | ▶Algeria OAIC NEW | ~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) | $319-321 CFR | Nov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 | Awarded | Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat |
|
OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible. Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f. Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds. Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. |
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| Sep 9 | ▶Pakistan (TCP) NEW | 750kt (+/-10%) | Lowest $348.83 CFR Karachi (Agrocorp) / $352.97 CFR Gwadar (LDC) | Oct 11-30 (landed by Nov 20) | Offers in - award pending | Agrocorp lowest Karachi, LDC lowest Gwadar · Milling wheat 10% min, 76 kg/hl, 250 FN |
|
TCP's evaluation report for the 750,000 MT (+/-10%) milling wheat tender: 13 bids received at the September 16 close, 11 priced, 9 technically and financially responsive. Grievance deadline 18:00 September 17; TCP may still reject offers before award. Lowest evaluated: Agrocorp International $348.83 CFR Karachi; Louis Dreyfus $349.97 Karachi / $352.97 Gwadar (lowest Gwadar). Other responsive offers, CFR Karachi: Bunge $356.86 (Gwadar $356.86), Falconbridge $357.49, Soufflet/Invivo $357.75, Aston $360.00, Ameropa $363.74 (Gwadar $367.49), CHS $364.50 (Gwadar $374.50), Olam $369.95. Al Ghurair and Mera non-responsive; Solaris and Turkish Grain Board sent regret letters. Context: lowest offer is ~$30 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f a day earlier, for a shorter haul from the Black Sea alternatives - the nearby premium in one number. Shipment October 11-30, all cargo landed by November 20, CFR Karachi/Gwadar, 50,000 MT minimum parcels. |
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| Sep 10 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 100kt | $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can) | Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) | Awarded | U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS |
|
South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB. US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB. Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027. Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates. |
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| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | Cancelled | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
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| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 730-6 | +2-2 | +0.31% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 746-6 | +2-2 | +0.3% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 754-0 | +1-4 | +0.2% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 752-2 | +1-4 | +0.2% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 756-6 | +2-4 | +0.33% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 765-6 | +4-4 | +0.59% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 799-4 | +3-2 | +0.41% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 812-2 | +2-4 | +0.31% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 815-4 | +1-0 | +0.12% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 807-2 | +1-4 | +0.19% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 808-4 | +2-2 | +0.28% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 815-2 | +3-4 | +0.43% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 756.0 | +7.5 | +1.0% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 774.75 | +5.5 | +0.71% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 785.25 | +5.0 | +0.64% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 784.0 | +3.0 | +0.38% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 767.5 | +2.5 | +0.33% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 767.25 | -0.25 | -0.03% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 244.50 | +3.50 | +1.45% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 246.50 | +3.50 | +1.44% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 247.00 | +3.50 | +1.44% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 236.50 | +2.75 | +1.18% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 240.25 | +2.75 | +1.16% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 336.00 | unch | unch |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 356.00 | +6.00 | +1.71% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 362.50 | +8.50 | +2.40% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 369.00 | +8.50 | +2.36% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 8, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 606,100 | 98,444 | 94,182 | +4,262 | -10,392 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 342,872 | 79,151 | 27,903 | +51,248 | +964 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,816 | 25,014 | 2,689 | +22,325 | +1,452 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,378,220 | 299,535 | 33,504 | +266,031 | +24,848 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,596,892 | 488,637 | 63,466 | +425,171 | -5,891 |
