Friday was bearish - 740 mbu because US wheat is priced out of its own export market, not because there is more of it. Then Sunday delivered the same headline as mid-September: an energy ceasefire announced from Washington, confirmed by neither side while strikes continue. USDA has Russia at 40 MMT and has not touched Ukraine yet, so the Black Sea export trade cut is half done. The Baltic transit ban is one to watch this week, because it closes Russia's one working door while the board is busy trading a ceasefire announcement Russia broke within hours.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | Dest | Freight | CFR | CFR W/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $295 | Indonesia | $32 | $327 | -13 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $260 | Indonesia | $45 | $305 | -11 |
| Argentina | 11.5% | $257 | Indonesia | $58 | $315 | -10 |
Wheat Hits a Two-Month Low on a Bearish WASDE, Trump Declares Energy Ceasefire
Futures. Wheat fell across the three exchanges on Friday and closed lower on the week. CBOT SRW Dec settled 671-0, -12-2 (-1.79%), a two-month low and down 12c on the week. KC HRW Dec 719-2, -17-0 (-2.31%), down 16c. MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 695-2, -10-6 (-1.52%), down 2-6c. Matif Dec 242.00, -2.25 (-0.92%). Corn Dec fell 20-4 (-4.10%) on the report. AUD/USD 0.6974 with the DXY at 102.21.
WASDE. USDA raised US wheat ending stocks 23 mbu to 740 mbu against the 721 mbu the trade expected, cutting exports 25 mbu to 750 mbu as HRW stays uncompetitive. Production of 1.534 billion bushels is still the smallest since 1970, and the farm price came down to $6.30. World ending stocks were fractionally lower at 276.0 MMT. Russia's exports were cut 3 MMT to 40.0 MMT, the lowest in five years, with Argentina and Canada picking up part of it and Ukraine untouched for now. EU production fell 0.8 MMT to 133.0 MMT on Germany.
Black Sea. Trump declared an energy ceasefire "effective immediately" on Sunday after telling Zelenskiy to stop hitting Russian refineries and calling for Ukrainian elections. Kyiv says it supports a ceasefire and is waiting for details, Moscow has said nothing, and Russia struck a Kharkiv heating and power plant hours after the announcement. Washington is also taking 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel under a separate deal. The Baltic states have asked Brussels to ban Russian grain transit through the EU, with Estonia already shut and the issue going to this week's European Council. Rouen shipped about 230,000 tonnes last week, its biggest week in years, as buyers switch to French wheat.
Managed Money. As of October 6, funds added 7,873 contracts to their CBOT SRW net short, now 29,543, and cut 6,670 from the KC net long to 24,040. Across ag futures they are still $50.3 billion net long after an estimated $5.8 billion of liquidation late in the week.
US Crop. The GEFS has another 25-50mm across the HRW belt through October 19, with planting already 10 points behind average.
Australia. August wheat exports were 1.66 MMT, down 13% on the year, but shipments to East Africa, Yemen and Oman rose 72% to 382,000 tonnes as Australian wheat fills the Black Sea gap. The Philippines took 337,500 tonnes and Indonesia 222,400. BOM's eight-day outlook (Oct 12-19) is dry for SA, Vic and WA at 1-10mm, with 25-50mm across Qld and northern NSW as the northern harvest gets going.
| Date | Buyer | Status | Qty | Price | Shipment | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) NEW | Awarded | 683kt (11 cargoes) | $334.66-348.00 CFR · avg $339.24 | Nov 20 - Dec 31 | Bunge 5 cargoes, Olam 3, Cargill, Aston, CHS, Soufflet · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports |
|
GFSA bought 683,000 MT of hard wheat - well above the ~535kt sought - at an average of $339.24/MT CFR, for arrival November 20 to December 31 (trader report, October 5). Jeddah: Cargill 60kt $342.79 (Nov 20-30), Aston 60kt $342.98 (Dec 1-15), Olam 65kt $338.50 (Dec 15-31). Yanbu: Bunge 65kt $334.66 (Nov 20-30), Bunge 65kt $337.66 (Dec 1-15), Bunge 65kt $336.56 (Dec 15-31), CHS 60kt $338.80 (Dec 15-31), Bunge 65kt $339.56 (Dec 15-31). Neom: Olam 63kt $336.50 (Nov 20-30), Olam 60kt $337.25 (Dec 15-31). Jizan: Soufflet 55kt $348.00 (Dec 15-31). Context: four weeks ago GFSA cancelled 535kt on price with CBOT Dec near 735; it has now taken 683kt with Dec at 692 - about $16/MT lower on the board. The $339 average sits alongside TCP $341.57 (Oct 2) and Jordan $332 (Sep 22): the hard-wheat CFR market in the Middle East has a floor in the high $330s that has barely moved while Chicago fell 60c. Buying 28% more than sought says Riyadh wanted the cover at these levels. |
||||||
| Oct 2 | ▶Pakistan (TCP) | Awarded | 180kt | ~$341.57 CFR (avg) | Arrival by Nov 20 | Bunge, Olam, Ameropa · Optional origin milling wheat |
|
TCP bought about 180,000 MT of milling wheat at an average of around $341.57/MT CFR Karachi/Gwadar from Bunge, Olam and Ameropa - the three lowest evaluated bidders from the September 28 opening (Bunge $339.36 Karachi / $340.36 Gwadar, Olam $341.88, Ameropa $343.47). Trader report via GRAIN on X, October 2. The average sits between the three offers, so TCP appears to have taken each at its own price rather than matching everything to the lowest as it did on September 19. Context: $341.57 is $7.26 under the $348.83 paid three weeks earlier on 365kt. CBOT Dec fell from 726¾ to 675¾-683 between the two awards (roughly $16-19/MT), so the CFR premium over Chicago has widened - Pakistan is paying up relative to the board. Programme total now ~545kt of the 750kt directed; roughly 200kt still to come. |
||||||
| Sep 29 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | Open | 100kt | Offers pending | TBC | — · U.S. milling wheat (SW / HRW / DNS expected) |
|
South Korean flour mills have issued a tender to buy 100,000 MT of US milling wheat, traders said on September 29. Grade split, shipment window and closing date to be confirmed. Compare the last two: September 10 the group bought 100,000 MT (50kt US from CJ International at $273.78 SW / $335.98 HRW / $335.52 DNS FOB for Jan 1-31, plus 50kt Canadian CWRS in the low $330s); August 6 it bought 36,800 MT US at $261.35 SW / $319.25 HRW / $320.36 DNS FOB. With KC Dec 23c under its September 10 level, an HRW print near $325-330 FOB would confirm the hard-wheat premium is coming off in the Pacific as well as in the CFR markets. |
||||||
| Sep 22 | ▶Jordan (MIT) | Awarded | 60kt | $332 CFR Aqaba | FH November | Buildcom (Bulgaria) · Optional origin milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT bought 60,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat from Bulgarian trader Buildcom at $332/MT CFR Aqaba, shipment first half of November 2026. Four companies, two envelopes. Other offers: CHS $335.88, Olam $339.00, Cargill $342.93/MT CFR. Context: Jordan cancelled on September 1 with offers at $340-350 CIF; $332 is $8-18 under those and $13 over the $318.95 CHS sale of August 18. Bulgarian origin at $332 CFR Aqaba sits between Algeria's $319-321 (Sep 15) and TCP's $348.83 CFR Karachi (Sep 19) once freight is allowed for - the Black Sea/Danube premium is holding at the physical level while Chicago has fallen 18c since the TCP award. |
||||||
| Sep 19 | ▶Pakistan (TCP) | Awarded | 365kt of 750kt sought | $348.83 CFR (all lots matched to lowest) | Arrival by Nov 20 | LDC, Bunge, Agrocorp, Aston (50kt each); Falconbridge, CHS, Ameropa (55kt each) · Optional origin ex Israel/India |
|
TCP bought 365,000 MT of the 750,000 MT sought, all at $348.83/MT c&f after asking bidders to match the lowest offer (Agrocorp's). Seven lots: 50,000 MT each from Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston; 55,000 MT each from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. Olam's $369.95 not taken. A new tender is expected within days for the remaining 385,000 MT. Shipment in 50,000 MT consignments to arrive Karachi/Gwadar by November 20 at the latest. Optional origin excluding Israel and India; offers cited Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, the US, Latvia and Germany. Pakistan is believed to have a substantial requirement after a disappointing domestic harvest. Context: $348.83 is ~$29 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f four days earlier - the nearby premium with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. Half the program booked; the other half comes back to a market that has since fallen ~15c in Chicago. |
||||||
| Sep 15 | ▶Algeria OAIC | Awarded | ~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) | $319-321 CFR | Nov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 | Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat |
|
OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible. Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f. Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds. Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. |
||||||
| Sep 10 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | Awarded | 100kt | $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can) | Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) | U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS |
|
South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB. US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB. Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027. Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates. |
||||||
| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) | Cancelled | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
||||||
| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | Cancelled | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
||||||
| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | Awarded | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
||||||
| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | Awarded | — | $320 FOB | — | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
||||||
| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | Awarded | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
||||||
| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | Awarded | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
||||||
| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | Awarded | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
||||||
| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | Awarded | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
||||||
| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | Awarded | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
||||||
| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | Cancelled | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
||||||
| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | Awarded | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
||||||
| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | Awarded | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
||||||
| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | Cancelled | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
||||||
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 671-0 | -12-2 | -1.79% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 685-2 | -12-4 | -1.79% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 692-0 | -12-0 | -1.7% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 695-0 | -10-0 | -1.42% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 701-4 | -8-4 | -1.2% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 712-4 | -7-2 | -1.01% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 719-2 | -17-0 | -2.31% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 731-6 | -17-2 | -2.3% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 736-6 | -16-4 | -2.19% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 737-2 | -13-6 | -1.83% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 743-4 | -12-0 | -1.59% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 753-4 | -10-6 | -1.41% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 695.25 | -10.75 | -1.52% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 713.25 | -10.25 | -1.42% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 725.0 | -9.75 | -1.33% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 734.0 | -7.25 | -0.98% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 732.0 | -2.75 | -0.37% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 735.5 | -3.75 | -0.51% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 242.00 | -2.25 | -0.92% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 243.25 | -3.00 | -1.22% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 243.00 | -3.00 | -1.22% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 234.00 | -1.00 | -0.43% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 238.25 | -0.75 | -0.31% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 358.00 | +0.50 | +0.14% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 360.80 | -0.70 | -0.19% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 366.80 | -0.70 | -0.19% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of October 6, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 597,861 | 84,078 | 113,621 | -29,543 | -7,873 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 343,374 | 69,309 | 45,269 | +24,040 | -6,670 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 76,620 | 17,580 | 5,911 | +11,669 | -4,537 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,379,088 | 279,144 | 27,484 | +251,660 | +10,497 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,558,826 | 384,250 | 66,891 | +317,359 | -60,492 |