SMAC Markets

Daily Wheat Report

CBOT SRW Dec
671-0
-12-2 (-1.79%)
KC HRW Dec
719-2
-17-0 (-2.31%)
MIAX Spring Dec
695.25
-10.75 (-1.52%)
Matif Dec
242.00
-2.25 (-0.92%)
ASX Jan
358.00
+0.5 (+0.14%)

The Market in 20 Seconds

Key Driver
Bearish WASDE
Watch
Ceasefire response and EU Baltic Transit Ban
Sam's Take

Friday was bearish - 740 mbu because US wheat is priced out of its own export market, not because there is more of it. Then Sunday delivered the same headline as mid-September: an energy ceasefire announced from Washington, confirmed by neither side while strikes continue. USDA has Russia at 40 MMT and has not touched Ukraine yet, so the Black Sea export trade cut is half done. The Baltic transit ban is one to watch this week, because it closes Russia's one working door while the board is busy trading a ceasefire announcement Russia broke within hours.

Physical Wheat Prices

as of Wednesday 7 October
OriginGrade FOB ($/mt) DestFreightCFRCFR W/W
AustraliaAPW1 (VIC/SA) $295 Indonesia$32$327-13
USASWW (PNW) $260 Indonesia$45$305-11
Argentina11.5% $257 Indonesia$58$315-10

Market Commentary

Wheat Hits a Two-Month Low on a Bearish WASDE, Trump Declares Energy Ceasefire

Futures

Futures. Wheat fell across the three exchanges on Friday and closed lower on the week. CBOT SRW Dec settled 671-0, -12-2 (-1.79%), a two-month low and down 12c on the week. KC HRW Dec 719-2, -17-0 (-2.31%), down 16c. MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 695-2, -10-6 (-1.52%), down 2-6c. Matif Dec 242.00, -2.25 (-0.92%). Corn Dec fell 20-4 (-4.10%) on the report. AUD/USD 0.6974 with the DXY at 102.21.

WASDE

WASDE. USDA raised US wheat ending stocks 23 mbu to 740 mbu against the 721 mbu the trade expected, cutting exports 25 mbu to 750 mbu as HRW stays uncompetitive. Production of 1.534 billion bushels is still the smallest since 1970, and the farm price came down to $6.30. World ending stocks were fractionally lower at 276.0 MMT. Russia's exports were cut 3 MMT to 40.0 MMT, the lowest in five years, with Argentina and Canada picking up part of it and Ukraine untouched for now. EU production fell 0.8 MMT to 133.0 MMT on Germany.

Black Sea

Black Sea. Trump declared an energy ceasefire "effective immediately" on Sunday after telling Zelenskiy to stop hitting Russian refineries and calling for Ukrainian elections. Kyiv says it supports a ceasefire and is waiting for details, Moscow has said nothing, and Russia struck a Kharkiv heating and power plant hours after the announcement. Washington is also taking 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel under a separate deal. The Baltic states have asked Brussels to ban Russian grain transit through the EU, with Estonia already shut and the issue going to this week's European Council. Rouen shipped about 230,000 tonnes last week, its biggest week in years, as buyers switch to French wheat.

Managed Money

Managed Money. As of October 6, funds added 7,873 contracts to their CBOT SRW net short, now 29,543, and cut 6,670 from the KC net long to 24,040. Across ag futures they are still $50.3 billion net long after an estimated $5.8 billion of liquidation late in the week.

US Crop

US Crop. The GEFS has another 25-50mm across the HRW belt through October 19, with planting already 10 points behind average.

Australia

Australia. August wheat exports were 1.66 MMT, down 13% on the year, but shipments to East Africa, Yemen and Oman rose 72% to 382,000 tonnes as Australian wheat fills the Black Sea gap. The Philippines took 337,500 tonnes and Indonesia 222,400. BOM's eight-day outlook (Oct 12-19) is dry for SA, Vic and WA at 1-10mm, with 25-50mm across Qld and northern NSW as the northern harvest gets going.

Tender Tracker

DateBuyerStatusQty PriceShipment Result / Origin
Oct 5 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) NEW Awarded683kt (11 cargoes) $334.66-348.00 CFR · avg $339.24Nov 20 - Dec 31 Bunge 5 cargoes, Olam 3, Cargill, Aston, CHS, Soufflet · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports

GFSA bought 683,000 MT of hard wheat - well above the ~535kt sought - at an average of $339.24/MT CFR, for arrival November 20 to December 31 (trader report, October 5).

Jeddah: Cargill 60kt $342.79 (Nov 20-30), Aston 60kt $342.98 (Dec 1-15), Olam 65kt $338.50 (Dec 15-31). Yanbu: Bunge 65kt $334.66 (Nov 20-30), Bunge 65kt $337.66 (Dec 1-15), Bunge 65kt $336.56 (Dec 15-31), CHS 60kt $338.80 (Dec 15-31), Bunge 65kt $339.56 (Dec 15-31). Neom: Olam 63kt $336.50 (Nov 20-30), Olam 60kt $337.25 (Dec 15-31). Jizan: Soufflet 55kt $348.00 (Dec 15-31).

Context: four weeks ago GFSA cancelled 535kt on price with CBOT Dec near 735; it has now taken 683kt with Dec at 692 - about $16/MT lower on the board. The $339 average sits alongside TCP $341.57 (Oct 2) and Jordan $332 (Sep 22): the hard-wheat CFR market in the Middle East has a floor in the high $330s that has barely moved while Chicago fell 60c. Buying 28% more than sought says Riyadh wanted the cover at these levels.

Oct 2 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Awarded180kt ~$341.57 CFR (avg)Arrival by Nov 20 Bunge, Olam, Ameropa · Optional origin milling wheat

TCP bought about 180,000 MT of milling wheat at an average of around $341.57/MT CFR Karachi/Gwadar from Bunge, Olam and Ameropa - the three lowest evaluated bidders from the September 28 opening (Bunge $339.36 Karachi / $340.36 Gwadar, Olam $341.88, Ameropa $343.47). Trader report via GRAIN on X, October 2.

The average sits between the three offers, so TCP appears to have taken each at its own price rather than matching everything to the lowest as it did on September 19.

Context: $341.57 is $7.26 under the $348.83 paid three weeks earlier on 365kt. CBOT Dec fell from 726¾ to 675¾-683 between the two awards (roughly $16-19/MT), so the CFR premium over Chicago has widened - Pakistan is paying up relative to the board. Programme total now ~545kt of the 750kt directed; roughly 200kt still to come.

Sep 29 ▶South Korean Milling Group Open100kt Offers pendingTBC — · U.S. milling wheat (SW / HRW / DNS expected)

South Korean flour mills have issued a tender to buy 100,000 MT of US milling wheat, traders said on September 29. Grade split, shipment window and closing date to be confirmed.

Compare the last two: September 10 the group bought 100,000 MT (50kt US from CJ International at $273.78 SW / $335.98 HRW / $335.52 DNS FOB for Jan 1-31, plus 50kt Canadian CWRS in the low $330s); August 6 it bought 36,800 MT US at $261.35 SW / $319.25 HRW / $320.36 DNS FOB.

With KC Dec 23c under its September 10 level, an HRW print near $325-330 FOB would confirm the hard-wheat premium is coming off in the Pacific as well as in the CFR markets.

Sep 22 ▶Jordan (MIT) Awarded60kt $332 CFR AqabaFH November Buildcom (Bulgaria) · Optional origin milling wheat

Jordan's MIT bought 60,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat from Bulgarian trader Buildcom at $332/MT CFR Aqaba, shipment first half of November 2026.

Four companies, two envelopes. Other offers: CHS $335.88, Olam $339.00, Cargill $342.93/MT CFR.

Context: Jordan cancelled on September 1 with offers at $340-350 CIF; $332 is $8-18 under those and $13 over the $318.95 CHS sale of August 18. Bulgarian origin at $332 CFR Aqaba sits between Algeria's $319-321 (Sep 15) and TCP's $348.83 CFR Karachi (Sep 19) once freight is allowed for - the Black Sea/Danube premium is holding at the physical level while Chicago has fallen 18c since the TCP award.

Sep 19 ▶Pakistan (TCP) Awarded365kt of 750kt sought $348.83 CFR (all lots matched to lowest)Arrival by Nov 20 LDC, Bunge, Agrocorp, Aston (50kt each); Falconbridge, CHS, Ameropa (55kt each) · Optional origin ex Israel/India

TCP bought 365,000 MT of the 750,000 MT sought, all at $348.83/MT c&f after asking bidders to match the lowest offer (Agrocorp's). Seven lots: 50,000 MT each from Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Agrocorp and Aston; 55,000 MT each from Falconbridge, CHS and Ameropa. Olam's $369.95 not taken.

A new tender is expected within days for the remaining 385,000 MT. Shipment in 50,000 MT consignments to arrive Karachi/Gwadar by November 20 at the latest.

Optional origin excluding Israel and India; offers cited Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, the US, Latvia and Germany. Pakistan is believed to have a substantial requirement after a disappointing domestic harvest.

Context: $348.83 is ~$29 above Algeria's $319-321 c&f four days earlier - the nearby premium with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop. Half the program booked; the other half comes back to a market that has since fallen ~15c in Chicago.

Sep 15 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) $319-321 CFRNov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat

OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible.

Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f.

Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds.

Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop.

Sep 10 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded100kt $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can)Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS

South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB.

US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB.

Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027.

Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates.

Sep 7 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) Cancelled535kt — (offers rejected on price)— — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only

GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price.

The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk.

Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20).

Sep 1 ▶Jordan Cancelledup to 120kt $340–350 CIF (offers)Oct-Nov — · Milling wheat

Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill.

Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18.

Next milling wheat tender expected September 15.

Aug 27 ▶Tunisia Awarded125kt $308.05 CIF— Bunge · Milling wheat

Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27.

In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF.

Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice.

Aug 20 ▶Japan MAFF Awarded— $320 FOB— Australia · ASW

Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20.

Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year.

In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ.

Aug 19 ▶Philippines SMC Awarded1 cargo $295 CFRSep (Oct 5 eta) U.S. · SWW

Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival.

US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September.

SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival.

Aug 18 ▶Jordan Awarded~60kt $318.95 c&fOct 1-15 CHS · Milling wheat

Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT.

CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F.

Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment.

Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment.

Aug 14 ▶Taiwan Awarded~97.2kt $261-320 FOBOct 24-Nov 28 U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW

Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments.

First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT.

Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT.

Trader estimates, subject to revision.

Aug 12 ▶Philippines Awarded~150kt $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFROct-Dec Australia · Feed wheat

Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines.

Shipments spread across October, November and December.

Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines.

Aug 7 ▶South Korea MFG Awarded~134kt ~$271.49 c&f~Dec 10–20 S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn

South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7.

Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading.

Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20.

Aug 7 ▶Tunisia Cancelled50kt $278.50 c&f (lowest)— — · Feed corn

Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7.

Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F.

A new tender is expected to be issued next week.

Aug 6 ▶South Korean Milling Group Awarded36.8kt $261–320 FOBDec 20–Jan 20 U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS

South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6.

Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB.

Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation.

This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week.

Aug 6 ▶Algeria OAIC Awarded~720kt $289–290 c&fSep-Oct Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat

Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday.

Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers.

Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports.

Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f.

Aug 4 ▶Jordan Cancelled— Not revealedSep-Oct — · Milling wheat

Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston.

Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed.

New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026.

What's Ahead

Week of Oct 12 – 16, 2026
Mon 12
USDA Export Inspections
US Crop Progress
Trump energy ceasefire - Moscow response
Tue 13
—
Wed 14
—
Thu 15
European Council - Baltic Russian grain transit ban
US Weekly Export Sales
Fri 16
CFTC COT Positioning

Charts

CBOT SRW Wheat — Dec 2026 (ZWZ6)
Volume
Stoch RSI (14, 20)
From a technical standpoint, if the December CBOT chart gets close to 700 it starts getting back into buy territory.
KC HRW — Dec 2026 (KEZ6)
KC — Chicago Spread (KE vs ZW)
New Crop AUD Basis — ASX Jan vs CBOT Dec (A$/t)

Settlement Prices

ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (ZWZ26)671-0-12-2-1.79%
Mar 27 (ZWH27)685-2-12-4-1.79%
May 27 (ZWK27)692-0-12-0-1.7%
Jul 27 (ZWN27)695-0-10-0-1.42%
Sep 27 (ZWU27)701-4-8-4-1.2%
Dec 27 (ZWZ27)712-4-7-2-1.01%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (KEZ26)719-2-17-0-2.31%
Mar 27 (KEH27)731-6-17-2-2.3%
May 27 (KEK27)736-6-16-4-2.19%
Jul 27 (KEN27)737-2-13-6-1.83%
Sep 27 (KEU27)743-4-12-0-1.59%
Dec 27 (KEZ27)753-4-10-6-1.41%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (MWEZ26)695.25-10.75-1.52%
Mar 27 (MWEH27)713.25-10.25-1.42%
May 27 (MWEK27)725.0-9.75-1.33%
Jul 27 (MWEN27)734.0-7.25-0.98%
Sep 27 (MWEU27)732.0-2.75-0.37%
Dec 27 (MWEZ27)735.5-3.75-0.51%
SpreadOpenHighLowCloseVolume

International Markets — Matif & ASX

Matif Milling Wheat (Paris)
ContractSettle (€/t)Change% Change
MLZ26 — Dec 26242.00-2.25-0.92%
MLH27 — Mar 27243.25-3.00-1.22%
MLK27 — May 27243.00-3.00-1.22%
MLU27 — Sep 27234.00-1.00-0.43%
MLZ27 — Dec 27238.25-0.75-0.31%

€/t  |  Euronext Paris

ASX Wheat (Sydney)
ContractSettle (AUD/t)Change% Change
X9F27 — Jan 27358.00+0.50+0.14%
X9H27 — Mar 27360.80-0.70-0.19%
X9K27 — May 27366.80-0.70-0.19%

AUD/t  |  ASX  |  Front months not yet trading

Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions

CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of October 6, 2026

Contract Long Short Net Position Chg (wk)
Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 597,861 84,078 113,621 -29,543 -7,873
Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 343,374 69,309 45,269 +24,040 -6,670
Wheat (MIAX) OI 76,620 17,580 5,911 +11,669 -4,537
Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,379,088 279,144 27,484 +251,660 +10,497
Corn (CBOT) OI 2,558,826 384,250 66,891 +317,359 -60,492