After weeks of subdued reactions to Black Sea headlines, the market repriced the whole story in one session. Nothing in Wednesday's news was truly new - the escalation report was the trigger, but port and vessel capacity has been at a standstill for weeks. Thursday trades with 70-cent limits. The next thing to figure out isn't whether the premium was justified - it's how quickly importers who spent August waiting for a truce start chasing. Egypt hoping for a deal isn't far away from a new tender in a limit-up market. French wheat is already loading two vessels destined for Egypt in the coming days.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | +15 | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $292 | +4 | Indonesia | $32 | $324 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $270 | +1 | Indonesia | $49 | $319 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Hits Limit Up as the Market Prices the Black Sea Shutdown
Futures. Wheat went limit-up on Wednesday. CBOT SRW Sep and Dec both settled the maximum 45 cents higher at 730-4 (+6.56%) and 748-2 (+6.40%). KC HRW Sep 792-0, +37-4 (+4.97%), with Dec 808-6, +38-0 (+4.93%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 721-4, +27-4 (+3.96%). Matif Dec 245.25, +8.50 (+3.59%), a one-month high. Both CBOT and KC trade with expanded 70-cent limits on Thursday. AUD/USD 0.7180. Buying started in the overnight session and never let up.
Black Sea. The Bloomberg report sparked a big reaction: Russia is preparing to escalate missile strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure, with people close to the Kremlin saying negotiation frameworks have collapsed. NKHP, one of Novorossiysk's three grain terminals, says repairs could take up to four months. On the Ukrainian side, up to 70 vessels are queued off the Danube's Sulina Canal with real capacity at two to three ships a day and delays costing up to $8,000 a day. Ukraine exported 539,000 tonnes from August 1-21 against 1.73 MMT the same period last year.
Hormuz/Energy. The other war went the other way. The IRGC says Iran and Oman have agreed shares of the strait and its revenues, though a senior Iranian source says nothing is finalised, and Tehran insists no reopening until the US lifts its blockade. Crude chopped both directions and closed lower, WTI near $82 with the week's drop near 6%. Trump claims 10 million barrels exited Hormuz on Tuesday.
Australia. The four-day outlook (Aug 27-30) puts the best falls in WA's cropping belt at 15-25mm, with lighter totals for the eastern and southern belts.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
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Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
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Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
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South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
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Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
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South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
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Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
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Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 730-4 | +45-0 LIMIT UP | +6.56% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 748-2 | +45-0 LIMIT UP | +6.4% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 765-2 | +44-0 | +6.1% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 771-2 | +41-4 | +5.69% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 762-6 | +33-4 | +4.59% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 765-2 | +29-4 | +4.01% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 773-2 | +26-0 | +3.48% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 792-0 | +37-4 | +4.97% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 808-6 | +38-0 | +4.93% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 822-0 | +37-2 | +4.75% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 826-0 | +35-0 | +4.42% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 817-0 | +28-2 | +3.58% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 817-0 | +24-4 | +3.09% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 822-2 | +21-2 | +2.65% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 721.5 | +27.5 | +3.96% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 748.0 | +28.0 | +3.89% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 766.0 | +27.75 | +3.76% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 777.0 | +27.5 | +3.67% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 778.75 | +22.75 | +3.01% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 766.5 | +16.75 | +2.23% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 772.25 | +18.25 | +2.42% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 236.00 | +8.50 | +3.74% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 245.25 | +8.50 | +3.59% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 245.50 | +6.75 | +2.83% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 247.00 | +6.00 | +2.49% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 239.25 | +5.25 | +2.24% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 244.00 | +4.75 | +1.99% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 350.00 | +2.50 | +0.72% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 363.00 | +2.00 | +0.55% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 366.50 | +2.00 | +0.55% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 373.00 | +2.00 | +0.54% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 18, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 573,777 | 76,844 | 103,329 | -26,485 | +4,916 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 339,878 | 68,422 | 33,587 | +34,835 | +7,173 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,500 | 18,563 | 6,900 | +11,663 | +1,784 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,219,563 | 193,837 | 42,175 | +151,662 | +50,301 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,395,505 | 376,030 | 125,525 | +250,505 | +83,735 |
