Global wheat supply exists. It just can't reach the water. That's the structural reduction last night's barrage reinforced, and it leaves wheat's path of least resistance pointing higher - bouts of profit-taking now read as pricing opportunities rather than trend changes. The modern grain market hasn't traded a supply shock of this shape before, and neither Russia's 2010 export ban nor the 2022 invasion shut this much capacity at once.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | +15 | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $292 | +4 | Indonesia | $32 | $324 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $270 | +1 | Indonesia | $49 | $319 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Extends to Fresh Three-Year Highs
Futures. The winter wheat exchanges pushed to fresh three-year highs on Thursday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 742-6, +12-2 (+1.68%), with Dec 760-6, +12-4 (+1.67%), the highest close since July 2023 and on track for the biggest monthly gain since February 2022. KC HRW Sep 803-4, +11-4 (+1.45%), with Dec 822-0, +13-2 (+1.64%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 732-6, +11-2 (+1.56%). Matif Dec 247.50, +2.25 (+0.92%) after touching 249, near July's contract high.
Black Sea. Russia hammered Ukrainian ports, grain storage and logistics overnight with ballistic and hypersonic missiles and 258 drones, striking three Odesa-region ports. Moscow's farmers aren't buying the rescue package - as Sizov points out, a tax break doesn't fix 95% of export capacity being physically shut. Russian domestic prices are down 36% since June and SovEcon's August export estimate was cut again to 1.9 MMT. Rerouting south-coast volumes to the Baltic adds $30-50 a tonne, and the Grain Union reckons alternatives recover half the lost volume at best. ADM Agriculture says the narrative is shifting from temporary disruption to a structural reduction in Black Sea supply.
Hormuz/Energy. Crude firmed, with Brent settling up 2.12% at 89.70 and WTI at 83.59, even as Hormuz flows creep up to 6-8 million barrels a day, roughly half pre-war levels, on shuttle runs and record supertanker earnings. Iran's exports remain blockaded.
Export Sales. Weekly US sales of 402,531 MT were a nine-week high but still 31% below the same week last year. Mexico led at 78,500 MT, with Japan and Vietnam following.
Tender News. Tunisia bought about 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat overnight at a price of $308.05/MT CIF.
Australia. The southern wheat market bucked the recent softening trend on export demand, with at least two cargoes loading at Vic ports for prompt shipment and Asian customers shoring up Black Sea uncertainty. Northern NSW rain (30-40mm) has bought struggling crops time.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia NEW | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
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Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
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Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
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Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
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Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
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Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
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South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
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Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
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South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
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Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
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Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 742-6 | +12-2 | +1.68% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 760-6 | +12-4 | +1.67% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 776-0 | +10-6 | +1.4% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 781-4 | +10-2 | +1.33% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 773-0 | +10-2 | +1.34% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 774-4 | +9-2 | +1.21% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 781-2 | +8-0 | +1.03% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 803-4 | +11-4 | +1.45% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 822-0 | +13-2 | +1.64% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 834-6 | +12-6 | +1.55% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 838-6 | +12-6 | +1.54% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 829-6 | +12-6 | +1.56% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 829-0 | +12-0 | +1.47% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 833-4 | +11-2 | +1.37% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 732.75 | +11.25 | +1.56% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 757.75 | +9.75 | +1.3% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 775.75 | +9.75 | +1.27% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 786.25 | +9.25 | +1.19% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 790.0 | +11.25 | +1.44% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 772.25 | +5.75 | +0.75% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 780.0 | +7.75 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 234.50 | -1.50 | -0.64% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 247.50 | +2.25 | +0.92% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 248.00 | +2.50 | +1.02% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 249.00 | +2.00 | +0.81% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 240.75 | +1.50 | +0.63% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 245.00 | +1.00 | +0.41% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 356.00 | +6.00 | +1.71% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 371.00 | +8.00 | +2.20% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 376.50 | +10.00 | +2.73% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 383.00 | +10.00 | +2.68% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 18, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 573,777 | 76,844 | 103,329 | -26,485 | +4,916 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 339,878 | 68,422 | 33,587 | +34,835 | +7,173 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,500 | 18,563 | 6,900 | +11,663 | +1,784 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,219,563 | 193,837 | 42,175 | +151,662 | +50,301 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,395,505 | 376,030 | 125,525 | +250,505 | +83,735 |
