USDA cut the Black Sea export numbers and the board still sold off - Russian exports down 3 MMT, Ukraine down 1 MMT, and the market focused on Australian and Canadian offsets instead. The 4 MMT of missing exports is now 2.5 MMT of extra Russian carryout, which is a bearish-later story - cheap wheat piling up behind a closed door. The physical story cuts the other way though. A Gulf pipeline shutdown props up freight, diesel and every CFR number just as Algeria and Pakistan price their tenders. Whether both decide to kick the can down the road is a big watch this week.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | +15 | Indonesia | — | $325 |
Wheat Slides Into the Weekend as WASDE Adds Supply
Futures. Wheat sold off across the three exchanges on Friday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 707-0, -16-2 (-2.25%), with Dec 725-2, -16-0 (-2.16%), down 8-6 on the week. KC HRW Sep 784-0, -20-2 (-2.52%), with Dec 798-4, -20-2 (-2.47%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 730-2, -12-4 (-1.68%). Matif Dec fell 4.25 to 241.00 (-1.73%), a two-week low. AUD/USD 0.7160.
WASDE. USDA left the US balance sheet untouched at 717 mbu ending stocks. The world side moved: Australia up 3.0 MMT to 31.0 MMT and Canada up 1.0 MMT to 36.0 MMT, with Ukraine up 0.6 MMT on record yield. Russian exports were cut 3 MMT to 43 MMT and Ukraine 1 MMT to 12.5 MMT on weak August shipments, with Australia's export line lifted 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT. World ending stocks rose 3.0 MMT to 276.3 MMT, with Russia's carryout up 2.5 MMT.
Managed Money. CFTC data as of September 8 showed managed money cutting 10,392 contracts from the fresh CBOT SRW net long, taking it to just 4,262 contracts. KC funds added 964 to a net long of 51,248. Weekly export sales of 194,233 MT missed the 250,000-500,000 MT range, down 36% on the same week last year.
Black Sea. Russia hit Odesa again on Saturday with cruise missiles, ballistics and 129 drones, striking infrastructure and two cargo ships at Chornomorsk. Ukraine sent 70 drones at Taganrog, the Azov grain hub, and hit a refinery in Krasnodar and chemical plants in Tatarstan and Perm. Trump told Zelenskiy on Sunday to stop hitting Russian diesel, saying it was "hurting the world" with US diesel at a record $6.20. Russia's August seaborne grain exports came in at 2.0 MMT, down 62% year-on-year, and Agriculture Minister Lut says Moscow is now routing grain via the Baltic, Caspian, Kazakhstan and the Far East, and discussing transit through China to Southeast Asia.
Tender News. Algeria is in for a nominal 50,000 tonnes of optional-origin soft wheat, offers due Tuesday, with French wheat excluded on political grounds. Pakistan's 750,000-tonne tender closes Wednesday and is expected to draw mainly Romanian and Bulgarian offers, possibly including Ukrainian wheat moved overland - though traders say TCP may cancel above $300 C&F. Egyptian and Libyan buyers showed interest at $300-305 for 11.5% protein.
Hormuz/Energy. The war's biggest bypass just closed. Saudi Arabia shut its 7 mbpd East-West pipeline after drone strikes launched from Iraq, cutting the main route for Gulf crude to dodge Hormuz. The Houthis captured Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb the same day, and a vessel was hit in Hormuz on Sunday. Monday's Oman meeting on a Hormuz corridor was postponed. Brent opened up 3.5% at 108.23 after a 9% week, with WTI at 103.20.
Australia. Southern prices softened on the weight of new crop prospects, with Melbourne ASW down $15 to $370 while Downs SFW firmed $2 to $417 as heat hit Queensland crops and northern growers stopped selling. The GEFS two-week outlook has the eastern belt at 20-40% of normal rainfall.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 | ▶Algeria OAIC NEW | 50kt nominal (usually buys more) | Offers due Sep 15 | Nov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 | Open | — · Soft milling wheat, optional origin |
|
OAIC issued an international tender on September 13 for a nominal 50,000 MT of soft milling wheat, optional origins; Algeria routinely buys several times the nominal volume. Offers due Tuesday September 15, valid to September 16. Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. French wheat has been excluded from recent Algerian tenders on political grounds; Black Sea origins had been expanding their share. Its August 6 tender took ~720,000 MT at $289-290/t c&f, largely Romania/Bulgaria. |
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| Sep 9 | ▶Pakistan (TCP) | 750kt | Offers due Sep 16 | Oct 11-30 (landed by Nov 20) | Open | — · Milling wheat 10% min, 76 kg/hl, 250 FN |
|
TCP issued its tender for 750,000 MT of milling wheat on September 9, CFR Karachi/Gwadar, minimum 50,000 MT parcels. Shipment October 11-30, all cargo landed by November 20. Offers due September 16, valid 80 hours - result expected around September 19. Specs: 76 kg/hl test weight, 10% protein minimum, 250 falling number. First phase of a program of up to 1 MMT. |
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| Sep 10 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 100kt | $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can) | Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) | Awarded | U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS |
|
South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB. US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB. Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027. Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates. |
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| Sep 7 | ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA) | 535kt | — (offers rejected on price) | — | Cancelled | — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only |
|
GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price. The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk. Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20). |
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| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 707-0 | -16-2 | -2.25% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 725-2 | -16-0 | -2.16% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 741-2 | -15-0 | -1.98% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 749-2 | -14-0 | -1.83% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 745-6 | -11-4 | -1.52% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 747-2 | -10-6 | -1.42% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 753-0 | -10-0 | -1.31% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 784-0 | -20-2 | -2.52% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 798-4 | -20-2 | -2.47% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 812-0 | -18-6 | -2.26% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 816-4 | -18-0 | -2.16% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 806-0 | -14-6 | -1.8% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 805-0 | -13-2 | -1.62% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 809-0 | -11-6 | -1.43% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 730.25 | -12.5 | -1.68% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 745.0 | -17.5 | -2.3% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 764.25 | -16.75 | -2.14% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 774.5 | -16.0 | -2.02% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 774.0 | -17.75 | -2.24% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 758.25 | -17.5 | -2.26% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 758.5 | -20.25 | -2.6% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 241.00 | -4.25 | -1.73% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 242.00 | -3.50 | -1.43% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 242.75 | -3.25 | -1.32% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 232.75 | -2.00 | -0.85% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 236.75 | -2.00 | -0.84% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 337.00 | -10.00 | -2.88% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 353.00 | +0.50 | +0.14% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 357.00 | +0.50 | +0.14% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 363.50 | +0.50 | +0.14% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 8, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 606,100 | 98,444 | 94,182 | +4,262 | -10,392 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 342,872 | 79,151 | 27,903 | +51,248 | +964 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,816 | 25,014 | 2,689 | +22,325 | +1,452 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,378,220 | 299,535 | 33,504 | +266,031 | +24,848 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,596,892 | 488,637 | 63,466 | +425,171 | -5,891 |
