SMAC Markets

Daily Wheat Report

CBOT SRW Dec
728-4
+6-4 (+0.9%)
KC HRW Dec
796-2
+3-6 (+0.47%)
MIAX Spring Dec
748.5
+12.25 (+1.66%)
Matif Dec
241.00
+0.5 (+0.21%)
ASX Jan
350.00
+2.0 (+0.57%)

The Market in 20 Seconds

Key Driver
Algeria pays $319-321 CFR - $30 above its August tender
Watch
Pakistan TCP offers and StatsCan crop report
Sam's Take

Algeria paid $30 more than six weeks ago - the cost of the shutdown priced by a buyer who probably could have waited a bit longer but chose not to. TCP is next. With global oil futures still climbing higher and physical cargoes for prompt delivery trading at a considerable premium as buyers scramble for alternatives, the CFR market continues to squeeze anyone with nearby demand.

Physical Wheat Prices

as of Tuesday 15 September
OriginGrade FOB ($/mt) DestFreightCFRCFR W/W
Romania/Bulgaria11.5% $280 Indonesia$65$345+20
AustraliaAPW1 (VIC/SA) $308 Indonesia$32$340+8
USASWW (PNW) $271 Indonesia$45$316-23
Argentina11.5% $258 Indonesia—$325—

Market Commentary

Wheat Firms as Algeria Pays Up $30 and Black Sea Resumes Energy Strikes

Futures

Futures. Wheat recovered across the three exchanges on Tuesday. CBOT SRW Dec settled 728-4, +6-4 (+0.90%). KC HRW Dec 796-2, +3-6 (+0.47%). MIAX Spring Wheat Dec 748-4, +12-2 (+1.66%) led as Canadian quality worries built. Matif Dec settled 241.00, +0.50 (+0.21%) after finding support at 238.

Tender News

Tender News. Algeria bought about 500,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat at $319-321 C&F for November shipment - $30 above the $289-290 it paid on August 5. Romanian and Bulgarian wheat is expected to fill most of it, with Baltic-state supply and Russian wheat railed to the Baltic also in the mix and French wheat still excluded. Pakistan's 750,000-tonne TCP tender submissions close today.

Black Sea

Black Sea. Trump's energy truce was premature. Russia sent 200 drones overnight, hitting Kyiv petrol stations and port infrastructure, while Ukraine struck the Syzran refinery on the Volga and drone factories in Taganrog and Oryol. SovEcon has September Russian wheat exports at 1.8 MMT against 4.6 MMT last year and a 4.9 MMT average, with rail carrying around 40% of the month's volume via Latvia and Lithuania.

Canadian Crop

Canadian Crop. Canada's harvest is stalling in the rain - Saskatchewan 27% done against a 58% average, Alberta 21% against 43.5% - with growers warning grade-one wheat is sliding to two or three on sprouting and mould. StatsCan reports today, but the damage post-dates its survey.

Hormuz/Energy

Hormuz/Energy. Brent futures settled near $109 but physical North Sea cargoes cleared $130, with Forties at $136.75 within reach of April's record, as Aramco cancelled late-September European cargoes with Yanbu loadings suspended. US diesel futures settled at a record, and Senate leader Thune says he is open to exploring a diesel export ban. Washington says the pipeline outage will be "measured in days" - UK authorities fear six weeks.

Australia

Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 16-23) is dry across the eastern belt with only 1-5mm for most of the cropping zone, keeping the early southern crop on its warm, fast finish.

Tender Tracker

DateBuyerQty PriceShipmentStatus Result / Origin
Sep 15 ▶Algeria OAIC NEW~500kt (500-510kt, possibly more) $319-321 CFRNov 1-15 / Nov 16-30 Awarded Optional origin - Romania/Bulgaria expected, some north EU/Baltic possible · Soft milling wheat

OAIC bought about 500,000 MT of soft milling wheat in the tender that closed September 15, European traders said. Initial purchase estimates 500,000-510,000 MT, some higher; further volume and price estimates possible.

Prices initially reported at $319-321/MT c&f. That is roughly $30/MT above the August 5 tender, when Algeria took up to 720,000 MT at $289-290/MT c&f.

Optional origin: Romanian and Bulgarian wheat expected to be the focus, with north EU wheat including the Baltics also possible; talk of Russian wheat shipped via the Baltic. French wheat remains excluded on political grounds.

Shipment November 1-15 and November 16-30 from Europe and main origins; one month earlier if sourced from South America, India or Australia. Tender took place with seaborne Black Sea exports at a virtual stop.

Sep 9 ▶Pakistan (TCP)750kt Offers due Sep 16Oct 11-30 (landed by Nov 20) Open — · Milling wheat 10% min, 76 kg/hl, 250 FN

TCP issued its tender for 750,000 MT of milling wheat on September 9, CFR Karachi/Gwadar, minimum 50,000 MT parcels.

Shipment October 11-30, all cargo landed by November 20. Offers due September 16, valid 80 hours - result expected around September 19.

Specs: 76 kg/hl test weight, 10% protein minimum, 250 falling number. First phase of a program of up to 1 MMT.

Sep 10 ▶South Korean Milling Group100kt $273.78-335.98 FOB (US) / low $330s FOB (Can)Jan 1-31 (US) / Jan 15-Feb 15 (Can) Awarded U.S. (CJ Intl) + Canada (GrainCorp) · SW / HRW / DNS / CWRS

South Korean flour mills bought 100,000 MT of milling wheat via tender: 50,000 MT US and 50,000 MT Canadian, all FOB.

US portion, seller CJ International, shipment January 1-31, 2027: 23,000 MT SW 9.5-11% protein at $273.78/MT FOB; 14,385 MT HRW min 11.5% at $335.98/MT FOB; 12,615 MT NS/DNS min 14% at $335.52/MT FOB.

Canadian portion, seller GrainCorp: 50,000 MT CWRS in the low $330s/MT FOB, shipment January 15-February 15, 2027.

Compare August 6: HRW $319.25 and DNS $320.36 FOB - hard wheat FOB up ~$16/MT in five weeks. Trader estimates.

Sep 7 ▶Saudi Arabia (GFSA)535kt — (offers rejected on price)— Cancelled — · Hard wheat 12.5%, Red Sea ports only

GFSA cancelled its 535,000 MT hard wheat tender on September 7, calling the offers unsuitable on price.

The tender had specified Red Sea discharge ports only to avoid Hormuz transit risk.

Saudi has storage and can wait; contrast Pakistan, which has directed TCP to buy 750,000 MT of milling wheat for November delivery (tender expected within days, arrival Karachi/Gwadar by November 20).

Sep 1 ▶Jordanup to 120kt $340–350 CIF (offers)Oct-Nov Cancelled — · Milling wheat

Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill.

Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18.

Next milling wheat tender expected September 15.

Aug 27 ▶Tunisia125kt $308.05 CIF— Awarded Bunge · Milling wheat

Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27.

In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF.

Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice.

Aug 20 ▶Japan MAFF— $320 FOB— Awarded Australia · ASW

Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20.

Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year.

In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ.

Aug 19 ▶Philippines SMC1 cargo $295 CFRSep (Oct 5 eta) Awarded U.S. · SWW

Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival.

US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September.

SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival.

Aug 18 ▶Jordan~60kt $318.95 c&fOct 1-15 Awarded CHS · Milling wheat

Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT.

CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F.

Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment.

Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment.

Aug 14 ▶Taiwan~97.2kt $261-320 FOBOct 24-Nov 28 Awarded U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW

Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments.

First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT.

Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT.

Trader estimates, subject to revision.

Aug 12 ▶Philippines~150kt $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFROct-Dec Awarded Australia · Feed wheat

Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines.

Shipments spread across October, November and December.

Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines.

Aug 7 ▶South Korea MFG~134kt ~$271.49 c&f~Dec 10–20 Awarded S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn

South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7.

Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading.

Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20.

Aug 7 ▶Tunisia50kt $278.50 c&f (lowest)— Cancelled — · Feed corn

Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7.

Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F.

A new tender is expected to be issued next week.

Aug 6 ▶South Korean Milling Group36.8kt $261–320 FOBDec 20–Jan 20 Awarded U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS

South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6.

Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB.

Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation.

This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week.

Aug 6 ▶Algeria OAIC~720kt $289–290 c&fSep-Oct Awarded Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat

Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday.

Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers.

Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports.

Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f.

Aug 4 ▶Jordan— Not revealedSep-Oct Cancelled — · Milling wheat

Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston.

Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed.

New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026.

What's Ahead

Week of Sep 14 – 18, 2026
Mon 14
USDA Export Inspections
US Crop Progress
Tue 15
Algeria OAIC offers due
Wed 16
Pakistan TCP offers due
Thu 17
US Weekly Export Sales
Fri 18
CFTC COT Positioning
Pakistan TCP result expected (Sep 19)

Charts

CBOT SRW Wheat — Dec 2026 (ZWZ6)
Volume
Stoch RSI (14, 20)
From a technical standpoint, if the December CBOT chart gets close to 700 it starts getting back into buy territory.
KC HRW — Dec 2026 (KEZ6)
KC — Chicago Spread (KE vs ZW)
New Crop AUD Basis — ASX Jan vs CBOT Dec (A$/t)

Settlement Prices

ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (ZWZ26)728-4+6-4+0.9%
Mar 27 (ZWH27)744-4+5-2+0.71%
May 27 (ZWK27)752-4+4-6+0.64%
Jul 27 (ZWN27)750-6+5-4+0.74%
Sep 27 (ZWU27)754-2+6-0+0.8%
Dec 27 (ZWZ27)761-2+6-0+0.79%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (KEZ26)796-2+3-6+0.47%
Mar 27 (KEH27)809-6+3-0+0.37%
May 27 (KEK27)814-4+2-6+0.34%
Jul 27 (KEN27)805-6+2-6+0.34%
Sep 27 (KEU27)806-2+2-6+0.34%
Dec 27 (KEZ27)811-6+2-6+0.34%
ContractSettleChange% Change
Dec 26 (MWEZ26)748.5+12.25+1.66%
Mar 27 (MWEH27)769.25+11.75+1.55%
May 27 (MWEK27)780.25+11.0+1.43%
Jul 27 (MWEN27)781.0+9.5+1.23%
Sep 27 (MWEU27)765.0+9.0+1.19%
Dec 27 (MWEZ27)767.5+10.0+1.32%
SpreadOpenHighLowCloseVolume

International Markets — Matif & ASX

Matif Milling Wheat (Paris)
ContractSettle (€/t)Change% Change
MLZ26 — Dec 26241.00+0.50+0.21%
MLH27 — Mar 27243.00+0.25+0.10%
MLK27 — May 27243.50-0.25-0.10%
MLU27 — Sep 27233.75+0.25+0.11%
MLZ27 — Dec 27237.50+0.00+0.00%

€/t  |  Euronext Paris

ASX Wheat (Sydney)
ContractSettle (AUD/t)Change% Change
X9U26 — Sep 26336.00-1.00-0.30%
X9F27 — Jan 27350.00+2.00+0.57%
X9H27 — Mar 27354.00+1.50+0.43%
X9K27 — May 27360.50+1.50+0.42%

AUD/t  |  ASX  |  Front months not yet trading

Managed Money (Funds) — Net Positions

CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of September 8, 2026

Contract Long Short Net Position Chg (wk)
Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 606,100 98,444 94,182 +4,262 -10,392
Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 342,872 79,151 27,903 +51,248 +964
Wheat (MIAX) OI 80,816 25,014 2,689 +22,325 +1,452
Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,378,220 299,535 33,504 +266,031 +24,848
Corn (CBOT) OI 2,596,892 488,637 63,466 +425,171 -5,891