Both wars escalated on the same day and wheat and crude closed higher. Yesterday's corridor hope lasted one session before Moscow buried it with a public rejection and intensified attacks on the Odesa region. The cheaper and mass produced Banderol missile is causing havoc for Ukraine's coastline and maritime traffic. Russia is also hitting the routes Ukraine retreated to - the Danube ports, Romanian crossings and the rail lines feeding them. The path of least resistance for wheat remains higher.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | +15 | Indonesia | — | $325 |
Wheat Resumes the Rally as Russia Rejects Moratorium and the US Hits Iran Again
Futures. Wheat turned back higher on Tuesday. CBOT SRW Sep settled 764-0, +7-4 (+0.99%), with Dec 782-4, +8-4 (+1.10%). KC HRW Sep 825-6, +5-4 (+0.67%), with Dec 845-2, +7-2 (+0.87%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 755-4, +16-2 (+2.20%) led the complex. Matif Dec jumped 8.25 to 253.50 (+3.36%), a fresh contract high. AUD/USD 0.7147.
Black Sea. Russia struck port export infrastructure in Odesa, a border crossing into Romania and the city's combined heat and power plant overnight, the fifth consecutive day of strikes on the region. The Telegraph reports the new Banderol cruise missile - cheap, 400mph, 300-mile range, launched from Crimea - has entered serial production and turned the coast into a no-go zone for cargo ships. Moscow also formally rejected Turkey's moratorium proposal, with Zakharova saying a return to the grain-deal format "makes no sense" and Lavrov accusing Ankara and Washington of ignoring Ukrainian strikes on shipping. Twelve were killed in Kyiv, including six railway workers when a ballistic missile hit rail facilities.
Hormuz/Energy. The war reignited. US forces began striking IRGC targets across southern Iran on Tuesday - Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Jask - after two supertankers were hit leaving Hormuz on Monday and the weekend's Larak exchange. Tehran's parliament speaker: "If the enemy wants us not to export oil from the Persian Gulf, no one will be able to export oil." Trump threatened to hit Iran "at a much harder and higher level" if it retaliates. Crude surged - WTI Oct settled 90.22, +4.46 (+5.20%), with Brent Nov at 95.25, +4.76 (+5.26%).
Australia. BOM's eight-day outlook (Sep 2-9) holds 10-25mm for the southern belt with 25-50mm pockets in Vic and Tasmania, following a week of 5-50mm falls across the south-east and WA.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | ▶Jordan NEW | up to 120kt | $340–350 CIF (offers) | Oct-Nov | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan's MIT cancelled its milling wheat tender again on September 1, having drawn only three offers — from Olam, CHS and Cargill. Offers were reportedly $340–350/MT CIF Aqaba, roughly $25–30 above the $318.95 CHS sale Jordan accepted on August 18. Next milling wheat tender expected September 15. |
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| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 764-0 | +7-4 | +0.99% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 782-4 | +8-4 | +1.1% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 797-4 | +9-2 | +1.17% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 803-2 | +9-6 | +1.23% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 794-6 | +9-0 | +1.15% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 794-6 | +8-0 | +1.02% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 799-4 | +7-2 | +0.92% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 825-6 | +5-4 | +0.67% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 845-2 | +7-2 | +0.87% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 858-4 | +7-2 | +0.85% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 862-0 | +7-0 | +0.82% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 850-0 | +5-6 | +0.68% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 846-4 | +4-4 | +0.53% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 848-2 | +3-2 | +0.38% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 755.5 | +16.25 | +2.2% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 776.75 | +13.75 | +1.8% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 794.25 | +12.25 | +1.57% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 804.0 | +12.0 | +1.52% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 805.75 | +9.5 | +1.19% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 788.25 | +9.75 | +1.25% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 793.25 | +7.75 | +0.99% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 245.25 | +8.25 | +3.48% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 253.50 | +8.25 | +3.36% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 253.50 | +7.75 | +3.15% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 254.00 | +7.25 | +2.94% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 242.00 | +3.50 | +1.47% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 245.25 | +3.25 | +1.34% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 357.00 | unch | unch |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 369.00 | -4.00 | -1.07% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 372.00 | -6.50 | -1.72% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 378.50 | -6.50 | -1.69% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 25, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 529,139 | 86,649 | 100,820 | -14,171 | +12,314 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 321,485 | 76,264 | 32,202 | +44,062 | +9,227 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 75,347 | 19,656 | 5,971 | +13,685 | +2,022 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,192,738 | 235,571 | 37,317 | +198,254 | +46,592 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,410,651 | 465,500 | 88,987 | +376,513 | +126,008 |
