Turkey floating a corridor is the first headline in a fortnight the market wanted to sell, although most of the session's losses were recovered. That's the pattern. Diplomacy trades for a session before the physical reality sets in. Probably a good buying opportunity on these dips until anything concrete transpires. September's Russian program at 1.8-2.3 MMT against a 4.9 MMT average is the number that matters, and Russia isn't at war with Turkey, it's at war with Ukraine. For Australia the timing is close to perfect. ABARES adds 3 MMT to the crop, the south is three to four weeks early, and WA loads a record September into the Black Sea gap. The premium buyers are paying for Australian wheat isn't going anywhere while the Black Sea is at a near standstill.
| Origin | Grade | FOB ($/mt) | W/W | Dest | Freight | CFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania/Bulgaria | 11.5% | $280 | — | Indonesia | $45 | $325 |
| Australia | APW1 (VIC/SA) | $300 | +8 | Indonesia | $32 | $332 |
| USA | SWW (PNW) | $290 | +20 | Indonesia | $49 | $339 |
| Argentina | 11% | — | — | Indonesia | — | $310 |
Wheat Retreats on Turkish Corridor Talk
Futures. Wheat pulled back from three-year highs into month-end. CBOT SRW Sep settled 756-4, -10-4 (-1.37%), with Dec 774-0, -10-0 (-1.28%), although both settled 15-18 cents off the session lows. KC HRW Sep 820-2, -7-4 (-0.91%), with Dec 838-0, -6-2 (-0.74%). MIAX Spring Wheat Sep 739-2, -6-0 (-0.81%). Matif Dec fell 5.75 to 245.25 (-2.29%). First notice day brought nine CBOT deliveries and 143 in KC. AUD/USD 0.7165.
Black Sea. Turkey says it has prepared a safe-passage plan and is talking to both sides about reviving something like the 2022 grain deal. The market sold it early, then pared losses on no further news. Meanwhile rerouting is happening: rail requests for Russia's Baltic ports hit 5 MMT by August 18. SovEcon puts Baltic-state capacity at 200,000-400,000 tonnes a month, and the Grain Union says all non-Black Sea routes combined handle half the lost volume at best. SovEcon has August Russian wheat exports at 2.0 MMT, the lowest since 2010, with a first September estimate of 1.8-2.3 MMT against 4.8 MMT last year.
US Crop. Spring wheat harvest reached 77% by Sunday, nine points ahead of normal. Weekly inspections of 430,925 MT were down 46% on the same week last year, with the Philippines and Taiwan the top destinations. Marketing-year shipments lag by 28%.
Hormuz/Energy. Iran retaliated for the Larak Island strike with attacks on the UAE and Jordan, the first exchange of fire in a month. WTI rose 2.8% to trade above $86, with Brent at $90.
Australia. ABARES lifted its wheat forecast 12% to 29.9 MMT from June's 26.7 MMT, with barley up to 16.4 MMT and canola to 7.27 MMT. Above-average May-July rain in SA and Vic has most crops three to four weeks early with well-above-average yield potential, while northern NSW and Qld remain poor. WA's September wheat exports are forecast near 1 MMT, 29% above the 15-year average following the Black Sea escalation.
| Date | Buyer | Qty | Price | Shipment | Status | Result / Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | ▶Tunisia | 125kt | $308.05 CIF | — | Awarded | Bunge · Milling wheat |
|
Tunisia booked 125,000 MT of milling wheat (5 x 25,000 MT) from Bunge at $308.05/MT CIF on August 27. In the same round, Tunisia's OdC feed barley tender took 75,000 MT in three 25,000 MT lots: Bunge at $301.68 and $303.85/MT, Casillo at $299.69/MT CIF. Tunisia's milling wheat price compares with Algeria's $289–290/t c&f booked on August 6 — a ~$18/t rise in three weeks as Black Sea alternatives reprice. |
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| Aug 20 | ▶Japan MAFF | — | $320 FOB | — | Awarded | Australia · ASW |
|
Japan's MAFF bought Australian Standard White (ASWJ) at $320/MT FOB on August 20. Buyers accepted a higher premium against APW — the usual spread would be around $10 at this time of year. In the same MAFF tender, Canadian wheat traded at an October basis of 120–125¢/bu over MWZ. |
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| Aug 19 | ▶Philippines SMC | 1 cargo | $295 CFR | Sep (Oct 5 eta) | Awarded | U.S. · SWW |
|
Philippines' San Miguel Corp bought a cargo of US SWW from CHS on Wednesday at $295/MT CFR Batangas + Bataan, September shipment for around October 5 arrival. US SWW was reportedly competitive with multiple sellers offering at the tender — last heard above $261 FOB PNW for September. SMC also booked ASEAN corn from a Vietnamese seller in the low $280s CFR for December arrival. |
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| Aug 18 | ▶Jordan | ~60kt | $318.95 c&f | Oct 1-15 | Awarded | CHS · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan bought around 60,000 MT of milling wheat on August 18 in a tender for up to 120,000 MT. CHS sold at approximately $318.95/MT C&F. Other offers: Bunge $337.00, Cargill $339.80, Olam $324.50/MT C&F. Shipment October 1–15. A new wheat tender follows on August 27 for Oct 1–15 or Oct 16–31 shipment. Jordan's 120,000 MT barley tender closed August 19 with no purchase (participants: Ameropa, Bunge, CHS, COFCO, Olam); a new 120,000 MT barley tender is expected August 26 for October shipment. |
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| Aug 14 | ▶Taiwan | ~97.2kt | $261-320 FOB | Oct 24-Nov 28 | Awarded | U.S. · DNS / HRW / SW |
|
Taiwan Flour Millers bought around 97,200 MT of US milling wheat on August 14 in two consignments. First vessel, 49,350 MT for Oct 24–Nov 7 shipment: 29,750 MT DNS 14.5% protein at $314.16/MT FOB, 12,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $317.09, and 6,950 MT soft white 8.5–10% at $260.88. Freight $49.28/MT. Second vessel, 47,850 MT for Nov 26–28 shipment: 29,450 MT DNS 14.5% at $319.67/MT FOB, 11,650 MT HRW 12.5% at $319.09, and 6,750 MT soft white at $260.88. Freight $50.74/MT. Trader estimates, subject to revision. |
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| Aug 12 | ▶Philippines | ~150kt | $285–286 FOB / $309–310 CFR | Oct-Dec | Awarded | Australia · Feed wheat |
|
Three positions of Australian feed wheat sold on August 12, totalling around 150,000 MT, for shipment to the Philippines. Shipments spread across October, November and December. Prices around $285–286/MT FOB, equating to approximately $309–310/MT CFR Philippines. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶South Korea MFG | ~134kt | ~$271.49 c&f | ~Dec 10–20 | Awarded | S. America/S. Africa · Feed corn |
|
South Korean MFG bought around 134,000 MT of feed corn on August 7. Origin: South America or South Africa. Two lots at approximately $271.49/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for extra unloading. Sellers were Cargill and ADM. Arrival estimated around December 10 and December 20. |
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| Aug 7 | ▶Tunisia | 50kt | $278.50 c&f (lowest) | — | Cancelled | — · Feed corn |
|
Tunisia's 50,000 MT feed corn tender was cancelled on August 7. Lowest offer was from Cargill at $278.50/MT C&F. A new tender is expected to be issued next week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶South Korean Milling Group | 36.8kt | $261–320 FOB | Dec 20–Jan 20 | Awarded | U.S. · SWW / HRW / DNS |
|
South Korean milling group bought 36,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat via tender on August 6. Three lots: 13,000 MT SWW 9.5–11% protein at $261.35/MT FOB, 13,500 MT HRW min 11.5% protein at $319.25/MT FOB, and 10,300 MT DNS min 14% protein at $320.36/MT FOB. Shipment: Dec 20, 2026 – Jan 20, 2027. Seller believed to be United Grain Corporation. This purchase is additional to around 50,000 MT bought by another Korean milling group earlier this week. |
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| Aug 6 | ▶Algeria OAIC | ~720kt | $289–290 c&f | Sep-Oct | Awarded | Rom/Bulg · Milling wheat |
|
Algeria's state grains agency OAIC bought around 540,000–720,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed Wednesday. Purchases were reported at around $289–$290/t c&f. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins but traders expected Romania and Bulgaria to be major suppliers. Russian wheat was offered but not favoured despite cheap prices, apparently because of concern about the impact of recent attacks on Russian shipping and ports. Shipment in three periods: Sep 15–30, Oct 1–15, Oct 16–31. If sourced from South America, India or Australia, shipment is one month earlier. In its last soft wheat tender on June 17, Algeria bought over 800,000 tons at around $264–$265/t c&f. |
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| Aug 4 | ▶Jordan | — | Not revealed | Sep-Oct | Cancelled | — · Milling wheat |
|
Jordan wheat tender on August 4 attracted only 2 participants: Bunge and Aston. Tender was cancelled — envelopes were opened but prices were not revealed. New wheat tender issued Tuesday August 11 for shipment: FH/LH September and/or FH/LH October 2026. |
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| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (ZWU26) | 756-4 | -10-4 | -1.37% |
| Dec 26 (ZWZ26) | 774-0 | -10-0 | -1.28% |
| Mar 27 (ZWH27) | 788-2 | -9-4 | -1.19% |
| May 27 (ZWK27) | 793-4 | -9-2 | -1.15% |
| Jul 27 (ZWN27) | 785-6 | -6-4 | -0.82% |
| Sep 27 (ZWU27) | 786-6 | -5-2 | -0.66% |
| Dec 27 (ZWZ27) | 792-2 | -4-6 | -0.6% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (KEU26) | 820-2 | -7-4 | -0.91% |
| Dec 26 (KEZ26) | 838-0 | -6-2 | -0.74% |
| Mar 27 (KEH27) | 851-2 | -5-4 | -0.64% |
| May 27 (KEK27) | 855-0 | -4-4 | -0.52% |
| Jul 27 (KEN27) | 844-2 | -1-4 | -0.18% |
| Sep 27 (KEU27) | 842-0 | +0-0 | +0.0% |
| Dec 27 (KEZ27) | 845-0 | +1-0 | +0.12% |
| Contract | Settle | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 (MWEU26) | 739.25 | -6.0 | -0.81% |
| Dec 26 (MWEZ26) | 763.0 | -6.25 | -0.81% |
| Mar 27 (MWEH27) | 782.0 | -5.75 | -0.73% |
| May 27 (MWEK27) | 792.0 | -5.5 | -0.69% |
| Jul 27 (MWEN27) | 796.25 | -5.0 | -0.62% |
| Sep 27 (MWEU27) | 778.5 | -2.0 | -0.26% |
| Dec 27 (MWEZ27) | 785.5 | -3.0 | -0.38% |
| Spread | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume |
|---|
| Contract | Settle (€/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLU26 — Sep 26 | 237.00 | -2.50 | -1.04% |
| MLZ26 — Dec 26 | 245.25 | -5.75 | -2.29% |
| MLH27 — Mar 27 | 245.75 | -5.50 | -2.19% |
| MLK27 — May 27 | 246.75 | -5.25 | -2.08% |
| MLU27 — Sep 27 | 238.50 | -4.25 | -1.75% |
| MLZ27 — Dec 27 | 242.00 | -3.75 | -1.53% |
€/t | Euronext Paris
| Contract | Settle (AUD/t) | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| X9U26 — Sep 26 | 357.00 | +2.00 | +0.56% |
| X9F27 — Jan 27 | 373.00 | +4.00 | +1.08% |
| X9H27 — Mar 27 | 378.50 | +4.00 | +1.07% |
| X9K27 — May 27 | 385.00 | +4.00 | +1.05% |
AUD/t | ASX | Front months not yet trading
CFTC Disaggregated COT · Options & Futures Combined · As of August 25, 2026
| Contract | Long | Short | Net Position | Chg (wk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat SRW (CBOT) OI 529,139 | 86,649 | 100,820 | -14,171 | +12,314 |
| Wheat HRW (CBOT) OI 321,485 | 76,264 | 32,202 | +44,062 | +9,227 |
| Wheat (MIAX) OI 75,347 | 19,656 | 5,971 | +13,685 | +2,022 |
| Soybeans (CBOT) OI 1,192,738 | 235,571 | 37,317 | +198,254 | +46,592 |
| Corn (CBOT) OI 2,410,651 | 465,500 | 88,987 | +376,513 | +126,008 |
